“双循环”背景下我国粮食安全韧性及风险管控战略研究  

Food Security Resilience and Risk Management Strategy in China in the Context of“Dual Circulation”

作　　者：青平[1] 邓秀新 闵师 李剑[1] 李晓云[1] 王玉泽 陈通[1] 王正聪 吴伟荣[1] 赵龙强 Qing Ping;Deng Xiuxin;Min Shi;Li Jian;Li Xiaoyun;Wang Yuze;Chen Tong;Wang Zhengcong;Wu Weirong;Zhao Longqiang(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]中国工程院,北京100088

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2023年第4期26-38,共13页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“双循环背景下国家粮食安全战略研究”(2022-XBZD-12)。

摘　　要：保障国家粮食安全是建设现代农业强国的重要基础,在“双循环”背景下探讨增强我国粮食安全韧性及风险管控能力,兼具理论价值和现实意义。本文阐释了“双循环”背景下粮食安全韧性及风险管控的科学内涵,剖析了当前我国粮食安全韧性及风险管控能力的现状与特点、影响因素和可行路径。研究认为,农业生产基础条件、粮食生产科技水平、粮食生产方式、粮食生产支持政策、国际贸易环境是影响粮食安全韧性及风险管控能力的关键因素;提高粮食供应的稳定性、提升粮食生产的抗逆性、加强粮食生产的可持续性、保持政策制度的连贯性、增强国内与国际市场的协同性是增强粮食安全韧性及风险管控能力的可行路径。为此建议,筑牢粮食产能基础、提升粮食技术支撑、强化智能监测管理、加快保障制度建设、优化粮食进出口贸易,以此增强“双循环”背景下我国粮食安全韧性及风险管控能力。Ensuring national food security is crucial for strengthening the agriculture sector of China,and it holds both theoretical and practical significance in the context of the“dual circulation”(i.e.,domestic and international economic circulations)strategy.This study explores the resilience of China’s food security and its capacity for risk management under the“dual circulation”framework,providing an analysis of the current status,characteristics,influencing factors,and feasible pathways for enhancing food security resilience and risk management capabilities.The study identifies key factors influencing food security resilience and risk management,including the agricultural production base,the level of agricultural technology,food production methods,support policies for food production,and the international trade environment.Feasible pathways for enhancing food security resilience and risk management capabilities include improving the stability of food supply,enhancing the adaptability of food production,promoting the sustainability of food production,maintaining the continuity of policy systems,and strengthening the coordination between domestic and international markets.To achieve these goals,it is recommended to solidify the foundation of grain production capacity,improve technological support for grain production,strengthen intelligent monitoring and management,accelerate the establishment of guarantee systems,and optimize grain import and export trade.These measures will enhance China’s food security resilience and risk management capabilities in the context of“dual circulation”.

关 键 词：粮食安全韧性 风险管控 “双循环” 大食物观 粮食贸易 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]