基于全产业链视角的粮食安全风险识别与管控策略  

Risk Identification and Control Strategies for Food Security Based on the Perspective of Whole Industrial Chain

作　　者：梅旭荣[1] 张琳[2] 袁龙江 胡向东[2] 谢玲红[2] 吴孔明[1] 王国刚[2] 王晓君[2] Mei Xurong;Zhang Lin;Yuan Longjiang;Hu Xiangdong;Xie Linghong;Wu Kongming;Wang Guogang;Wang Xiaojun(Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2023年第4期39-49,共11页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“国家食物安全风险管控战略研究”(2021-HZ-07);“新发展阶段农业食物系统转型战略研究”(2022-HZ-07)。

摘　　要：精准识别并有效防控粮食安全风险事关国家安全大局。本文从全产业链视角出发,构建了包含九大类风险来源的粮食安全风险体系,研判了新阶段我国粮食安全面临育种技术相对滞后、资源供需矛盾突出、灾害多发高发、种粮意愿下降明显、市场贸易不可控性加大、政策的规范性和稳定性亟待提升、突发事件冲击频繁等主要风险。提出了将“早期识别‒常态监测‒应急预警”相结合,建立“全链条识别‒全过程管理‒多层级联动”的粮食安全风险管控体系的战略构想,推进粮食安全立法、启动“国家粮食安全风险管控体系建设”重点科技专项、建立健全基础设施和防御体系、借助市场化手段和管理工具化解粮食安全重大风险等对策建议。相关成果可为推动我国粮食安全治理体系和治理能力现代化研究提供参考。Accurate identification and effective control of food security risks are crucial for national security.This study constructs a food security risk system that comprises nine major types of risk sources from the perspective of the entire industrial chain.Our research identifies seven main risks that China’s food security faces at the new stage:relatively lagging breeding technologies,prominent contradiction between resource supply and demand,frequent disasters,significant decline in farmers’willingness to grow grains,increased uncontrollability of market trade,inadequacy in policy compliance and stability,and frequent impacts of unexpected events.Based on this,a strategic concept is proposed,that is,a food security risk management and control system that combines early identification,normal monitoring,and emergency warning and is capable of entire industrial chain risk identification,whole-process management,and multi-level linkage.Furthermore,the following strategies for controlling food security risks are proposed:(1)promoting food security legislation,(2)launching a key scientific and technological project for constructing a national food security risk control system,(3)improving infrastructure and defense systems,and(4)optimizing market-oriented means and tools for risk management.The research results are expected to provide decision-making references for promoting the modernization of China’s food security governance system and capacities.

关 键 词：粮食安全风险 管控策略 风险管控体系 全产业链 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]