人口老龄化背景下数字经济对产业结构升级的影响研究——基于半参数门槛空间滞后模型  

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on Industrial Structure Upgrading Under the Population Ageing Background——Based on Semiparametric Threshold Spatial Lag Model

作　　者：叶阿忠 徐曼 Ye Azhong;Xu Man(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第9期34-46,共13页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“半参数全局向量自回归模型的理论研究及其应用”(项目编号:71571046);国家自然科学基金项目“半参数门限空间滞后模型理论研究及其应用”(项目编号:72073030)。

摘　　要：在人口老龄化背景下,发展数字经济成为推动我国产业结构升级的重要力量。本文通过理论模型分析了人口老龄化、数字经济和产业结构升级之间存在的非线性关系、空间溢出效应和异质性情况,并基于2011~2021年中国省域面板数据,采用半参数模型、半参数空间滞后模型和半参数门槛空间滞后模型等方法,逐步考虑人口老龄化的非线性特征、产业结构升级的空间特征和数字经济的门限特征,对数字经济、人口老龄化与产业结构升级的关系进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)产业结构升级具有明显的空间集聚性,经济空间位置邻近省(区、市)对本地区产业结构升级情况产生正向影响;(2)数字经济推动产业结构转型升级存在显著的门槛效应,人口老龄化超过门槛值后数字经济推动产业结构升级效果更佳;(3)将人口老龄化设为非参数项后发现其对产业结构升级的影响存在非线性特征。在人口老龄化较高时,老龄化促进产业结构升级,而在老龄化较低时,老龄化阻碍产业结构升级,并通过偏导图发现二者边际影响呈现一种“N”型曲线关系。In the background of population aging,digital economy has become a major force driving the upgrading of China's industrial structure.According to China's provincial panel data from 2011~2021,this paper analyzes the non-linear relationship,spatial spillover effect and heterogeneity among population aging,digital economy and industrial structure upgrading,the methods of semiparametric model,semiparametric space lag model and semiparametric threshold space lag model are adopted,gradually tak⁃ing into account the nonlinear characteristics of population aging,the spatial characteristics of industrial structure upgrading and the threshold characteristics of the digital economy,conduct empirical research on digital economy,population aging and industrial structure upgrading.The study finds:firstly,the upgrading of industrial structure has obvious spatial agglomeration,the neighbo⁃ring provinces have a positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in the region.Secondly,the digital economy has a sig⁃nificant threshold effect in promoting industrial structure upgrading.After the aging of population exceeds the threshold,the digital economy has a better effect on promoting the upgrading of industrial structure.Thirdly,it is found that the influence of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure has nonlinear characteristics after setting it as a non-parameter item.In the regions with higher population aging,aging has a significant promoting effect on industrial structure upgrading,while in the areas with lo⁃wer aging,there is a blocking effect.Through the partial derivative graph,it is found that the marginal influence of the two shows an N-type curve relationship.

关 键 词：半参数门槛空间滞后模型 空间效应 门槛效应 人口老龄化 数字经济 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F49