2023年上半年中国大豆市场形势回顾和后期展望  

China's Soybean Market Situation in the First Half of 2023 and Its Future Prospects

作　　者：王禹[1] 许世卫[1] 李干琼[1] Wang Yu;Xu Shiwei;Li Ganqiong(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese A cademy of Agricultural Sciences,Research Center of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Engineering Technologies of Beijing,Key Open Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technologies and Systems,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of the Ministry of A griculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/北京市农业监测预警工程技术研究中心/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室/农业农村部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2023年第7期3-8,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(0123043);2023年中国农业科学院农业信息研究所公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(JBYW-AII-2023-32);农业农村部规划设计研究院乡村振兴重点课题(XC2X2DKT-20230713)。

摘　　要：大豆是中国重要的粮食和油料兼用作物之一,也是最主要的动物蛋白饲料原料,作为最大的粮食进口品种,及时研判中国大豆市场形势至关重要。详细分析了2023年上半年国产大豆生产、价格、国际大豆价格以及国内大豆需求和进口情况,并对下半年国内大豆供销走势进行展望。2023年国产大豆种植面积和产量预计再创历史新高,在国际大豆供需宽松、国际大豆价格震荡下行和国内大豆饲用需求回升背景下,上半年大豆进口量达5258万t,为历史最高水平,预计全年将达9700万t,为历史次高水平。同时,针对新形势指出了国内大豆产业面临国产大豆增产后滞销卖难等突出问题,建议从增加收储调节、增加消费端支持等方面不断提升国产大豆市场竞争能力。Soybean is one of the important crops for both grain and oil crops in China,and it is also the most important raw material of animal protein feed.As the largest imported grain variety,timely analysis of the soybean market situation in China is crucial.The production,price,international soybean price,domestic soybean demand and import of soybeans in the first half of 2023 were analyzed,and a detailed outlook on the supply and sales trend of domestic soybeans in the second half of the year were provided.The planting area and yield of domestic soybeans are expected to reach a new historical high in 2023.Against the backdrop of loose international soybean supply and demand,oscillating downward of international soybean prices,and rebounding domestic soybean feed demand,the import volume of soybeans in the first half of the year reached 52.58 million tons,the highest level in history,and it is expected to reach 97 million tons throughout the year,the second highest level in history.At the same time,in response to the new situation,potential emerging problems existing in domestic soybean industry such as unsold and difficult to sell of domestic soybeans after increasing production were pointed out,and it was recommended to continuously improve the competitiveness of domestic soybean in the market by increasing the regulation of collection and storage,increasing consumer support,and other aspects.

关 键 词：大豆 生产 贸易 价格 市场形势 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]