中国农户生产经营风险研究及政策分析——基于黑龙江、河南宏观数据  

Research and Policy Analysis of Production and Operation Risks of Farmers in China——Based on the Macro Data of Heilongjiang and Henan

作　　者：杨旭东 魏腾达 王克 Yang Xudong;Wei Tengda;Wang Ke(Agricultural Information Institute,CAAS,Beijing 100081;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083;China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [3]中国农业再保险股份有限公司,北京100083

出　　处：《农业展望》2023年第7期24-30,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业保险保障水平提升的机理和路径研究:合约设计的视角”(7207031101)。

摘　　要：近年来自然灾害频发以及国内外市场剧烈震荡的双重因素导致农户生产经营风险不断变化加剧,政府的强农惠农政策也做出了相应调整。在政府积极推动农业保险高质量发展的大背景下,对农户面临的生产经营风险新形势进行研究分析具有重要意义。基于《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》数据,采用对收入风险进行方差分解的方法,在全国及省级(黑龙江、河南)层面对小麦、玉米、大豆的生产经营风险环境进行了实证动态分析。结果显示,小麦自2006年实施最低收购价政策后产量风险始终占主导,而玉米、大豆在取消临时收储政策后价格风险上升占主导。基于此,从农业风险保障优先序方面提出了相应的政策建议,即:注重发展小麦产量保险,推进小麦产量保险实施;侧重玉米、大豆保险的价格保障功能,扩大价格保险、收入保险实施范围。In recent years,the dual factors of frequent natural disasters and drastic domestic and international market shocks have led to increasing changes in production and business risks for farmers,and the government's policies to strengthen agriculture and benefit agriculture have been adjusted accordingly.In the context of the government's active promotion of high-quality development of agricultural insurance,it is important to study and analyze the new situation of production and management risks faced by farmers.Based on the data from National Cost-benefit Data Collection of Agricultural Products,an empirical dynamic analysis of the production and management risk environment of wheat,corn and soybeans at the national and provincial(Heilongjiang and Henan) levels was conducted by using a variance decomposition of income risk.The results showed that wheat,which has been implementing the minimum purchase price policy since 2006,the yield risk has always dominated,while corn and soybeans,after the removal of the temporary storage policy,the price risks have increased and dominated.Based on this,policy recommendations were put forward in terms of the priority order of agricultural risk protection:focusing on the development of wheat yield insurance and promoting the implementation of wheat yield insurance;focusing on the price protection function of corn and soybean insurance,and expanding the scope of price insurance and income insurance implementation.

关 键 词：农户风险环境 方差分解 价格风险 产量风险 风险比重 粮食作物 农业支持政策 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]