我国结构性通胀差异的空间效应分析  

Spatial Effects Analysis of Structural Inflation Disparities in China

作　　者：喻旭兰[1] 炊李萌 彭碧婷 Yu Xulan;Chui Limeng;Peng Biting(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University;Business School,Hunan University)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院 [2]湖南大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《金融经济》2023年第8期3-15,共13页Finance Economy

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目“区域结构性通货膨胀的时空差异及形成机制”(2021JJ30162)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：本文从价格指数演变不平衡和区域发展不平衡的角度出发,采用CPI与PPI的相对变化测度我国通胀的结构性特征,并基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应对其形成机理展开研究,使用空间计量模型对全国29个省(自治区、直辖市)2000—2020年数据进行实证检验。研究发现,我国结构性通胀显示较强的空间相关性和显著的溢出效应。供给侧冲击对价格指数具有持续长期的影响,是导致结构性通胀的根本原因,其中相对劳动生产率差距和产业结构问题是关键因素。此外,需求层面和外部冲击也与供给相互作用导致价格水平发生结构性偏离,塑造了长期价格变动的趋势,最终呈现为结构性通胀或结构性通缩。This paper explores the structural characteristics of inflation in China by examining the imbalance in price index evolution and regional development disparities.Using the relative changes between the Consumer Price Index(CPI)and the Producer Price Index(PPI),the study investigates the formation mechanism of structural inflation through the Balassa-Samuelson effect.A spatial econometric model is applied to empirically test data from 29 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)across China for the years 2000 to 2020.The research reveals that structural inflation in China exhibits significant spatial correlation and notable spillover effects.Supply-side shocks have a persistent and long-term impact on the price index,constituting the fundamental cause of structural inflation.Among these shocks,disparities in relative labor productivity and issues related to industrial structure play pivotal roles.Additionally,demand-side factors and external shocks interact with supply-side dynamics,leading to structural deviations in price levels,shaping the trends in long-term price fluctuations,ultimately manifesting as structural inflation or deflation.

关 键 词：结构性通胀 巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应 空间计量模型 差异性政策 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学] F822.5