基于GTWR模型的河北省碳排放影响因素异质性研究  

Research on Heterogeneity of the Impact of Influencing Factors on Carbon Emission in Hebei Province Based on GTWR Model

作　　者：马建辉[1,2] 孙钰 郭昭鹏[4] 何焱 范谋远 MA Jianhui;SUN Yu;GUO Zhaopeng;HE Yan;FAN Mouyuan(School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding Hebei 071002,China;Research Center of Resources Utilization and Environmental Conservation,Hebei University,Baoding Hebei 071002,China;School of Public Management,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China;College of Northeast Asian Studies,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin 130012,China;The Center for Economic Research,Shandong University,Jinan Shandong 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002 [2]河北大学资源利用与环境保护研究中心,河北保定071002 [3]天津商业大学公共管理学院,天津300134 [4]吉林大学东北亚学院,吉林长春130012 [5]山东大学经济研究院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第9期23-29,49,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目“河北省土地利用碳核算和脱钩分析”(HB21TJ004)。

摘　　要：基于GTWR模型,探究了不同因素对河北省净碳排放影响的时空异质性。结果表明,各碳排放影响因素的回归系数均具有不同程度时空异质性,时间异质性较空间异质性更为明显;研究期内,人口规模和城市化对碳排放影响为正向且大体呈下降趋势,在研究期末稳定于较低的水平;固定资产投资、对外开放水平和第二产业占比对碳排放的影响大体呈上升趋势,在研究期末均为正向影响且处于相对较高的水平;各地级市间,人口规模和第二产业占比对碳排放的影响的差异相对较小,而固定资产投资、对外开放水平和城市化率对碳排放的影响差异相对较大。GTWR model is used to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the impacts of different influencing factors on net carbon emission in Hebei Province.The results show that the regression coefficients of each influencing factor are obviously heterogeneous from both spatial and temporal respects,and the temporal heterogeneity is more obvious than the spatial heterogeneity.During the study period,the impacts of population size and urbanization on carbon emission are all positive and generally decreased,and stabilized at a lower level at the later stage of this study,while the opening-up level,fixed asset investment and proportion of secondary industry showed an increasing trend,are all positive and at a higher level at the later stage of this study.Among prefecture-level cities,the heterogeneity of the impacts of population size and proportion of secondary industry on carbon emission is smaller,while the heterogeneity of the impact of fixed asset investment,opening-up level and urbanization on carbon emission is larger.

关 键 词：净碳排放 影响因素 异质性 时空地理加权回归 河北省 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X502