干旱传播研究进展与展望Ⅰ--干旱传播含义、特征、类型与研究方法  

Progress and prospects in drought propagation research part I:Meaning,characteristics,types,and research methods

作　　者：智协飞[1,2] 田云涛 陈昌春 张余庆 ZHI Xiefei;TIAN Yuntao;CHEN Changchun;ZHANG Yuqing(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Weather Online Institute of Meteorological Applications,Wuxi 214000,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai'an 223000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]天气在线气象应用研究所,江苏无锡214000 [3]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,南京210044 [4]淮阴师范学院城市与环境学院,江苏淮安223000

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2023年第4期625-653,共29页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC1502000)。

摘　　要：在回顾干旱传播概念和内涵的基础上,明确提出干旱传播全环节的详细定义,阐述干旱传播的累积、衰减、滞后及延长特征,并重点就累积性与滞后性提炼了有关进展。按干旱传播环节、干旱传播时空特征两种方法划分干旱传播的类型,从线性回归、对数函数、小波分析、Copula函数、因果分析、贝叶斯网络和随机森林7个方面、从单一水文模型模拟和多个模型集合模拟两大方面,分别归纳统计方法、水文模拟方法在干旱传播研究领域的应用。Based on the review of the concept and connotation of drought propagation,a detailed definition of the entire process of drought propagation is provided and the accumulation,attenuation,lagging,and lengthening characteristics of drought propagation are expanded on.Progress in the aspects of accumulation and lag is emphasized.Drought propagation is classified into different types based on the process and spatiotemporal characteristics.The statistical methods,including linear regression,logarithmic function,wavelet analysis,Copula function,causal analysis,Bayesian network,and random forest,as well as hydrological simulation methods,including single hydrological model simulation and multiple model ensemble simulation,are summarized and discussed regarding their applications in drought propagation research.

关 键 词：干旱传播 定义 特征 类型 方法 进展 

分 类 号：P343[天文地球—水文科学]