城市物流配送需求的影响因素及空间非平稳性研究  

Research on the Influencing Factors and Spatial Non-Stationarity of Urban Logistics Delivery Demand

作　　者：崔以晴 Cui Yiqing

机构地区：[1]上海市城市规划设计研究院

出　　处：《交通与港航》2023年第4期35-41,共7页Communication & Shipping

摘　　要：经济全球化背景下,城市间的经济联系日益紧密,物流服务需求愈加旺盛。商业配送和快运业务的蓬勃发展,进一步推动了城市内部物流配送需求的迅速增长,给城市物流空间规划带来了一系列挑战。该文以上海市为研究区域,基于新能源货车轨迹数据提取的活动停留点数据,融合交通基础设施和产业结构等多源数据,采用多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)探索影响城市物流配送需求的关键要素。结果表明:MGWR模型能够反映城市物流配送活动强度影响因素的空间非平稳性和尺度差异;商贸服务企业与物流企业密度以及物流枢纽可达性在影响新能源货车物流配送活动强度方面具有重要作用,物流配送空间规划需充分考虑这些影响因素的空间非平稳性。研究结果可为精细化的城市物流配送空间规划提供理论基础。In the context of economic globalization,economic ties between cities are becoming increasingly close,leading to a growing demand for logistics services.The development of commercial distribution and express transport businesses further accelerates the rapid growth of intra-city logistics and distribution demand,presenting a series of challenges for urban logistics spatial planning.Based on activity stopping point data of new energy trucks and data on transport infrastructure and industrial structure,a multiscale geographically weighted regression model(MGWR)was used to analyze the influencing factors of urban distribution logistics demand in Shanghai.The results revealed that the MGWR model effectively captured the spatial non-stationarity and scale differences in the factors affecting the intensity of urban logistics and distribution activities.The density of commercial and trade service enterprises and logistics enterprises,as well as the accessibility of logistic hubs,played significant roles in influencing the intensity of logistics and distribution activities of new energy trucks.Spatial non-stationarity of these influencing factors should be fully considered in the spatial planning of urban logistics and distribution.The research results provide a theoretical basis for refined urban logistics and distribution spatial planning.

关 键 词：物流配送需求 物流空间规划 空间非平稳性 多尺度地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济] TU984.13[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]