自然灾害冲击对农户非农就业的影响研究——基于二元Logit模型的实证分析  

Research on the impact of natural disasters on rural non-farm employment:An empirical analysis based on the binary Logit model

作　　者：王珏 王彦平 王威 WANG Jue;WANG Yan-ping;WANG Wei(Business School,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学商学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2023年第4期76-90,共15页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42101216)。

摘　　要：非农就业是补充农户收入和维持农村生计的一项重要战略,近年来增加非农收入成为实现农民增收的重要途径。本研究利用甘肃省永靖县黑方台的微观数据,采用熵法和二元Logit模型实证分析了自然灾害对农村劳动力非农就业选择的影响,结果表明:(1)自然灾害冲击对农户家庭非农就业有显著的正向影响,在自然灾害的冲击下,农户家庭选择非农就业的概率显著提升;(2)自然灾害强度对农户家庭非农就业也有显著的正向影响,自然灾害强度越强,农户恢复农业生产的可能性越小,选择非农就业的概率就越高;(3)自然资本、物质资本和人力资本会减弱自然灾害冲击对农户非农就业选择的影响,金融资本和社会资本影响不显著。研究补充和拓展了自然灾害与农户非农就业行为决策之间关系的文献,为带动农户就业和完善非农政策提供了一定的启示与建议。Non-agricultural employment is an important strategy to supplement farmers' income and maintain rural livelihoods.In recent years,increasing non-agricultural income has become an important way to increase farmers' income.Based on the microscopic data of Heifang Platform in Yongjing County,Gansu Province and by using entropy method and binary Logit model,this study analyzes the impact of natural disasters on rural labor's non-farm employment choice.The results show that:(1) natural disasters have a significant positive impact on rural household non-farm employment,and the probability of rural household choosing non-farm employment is sharply increased under the impact of natural disasters;(2)The intensity of natural disasters also has a significant positive impact on non-farm employment of rural households.The severer natural disasters are,the less likely farmers are to resume agricultural production and the higher the probability of non-farm employment.(3) Natural capital,physical capital and human capital will weaken the impact of natural disasters on farmers' nonagricultural employment choice,while financial capital and social capital have a minor impact.This study serves as supplements to and an expansion of the literature on the relationship between natural disasters and farmers' non-agricultural employment behavior decisions,and provides enlightenment and suggestions to drive farmers' employment and improve non-agricultural policies.

关 键 词：自然灾害 非农就业 生计资本 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]