抚养负担视角下房价波动对居民消费的影响分析  

Analysis of the impact of housing price fluctuation on residents’consumption from the perspective of dependency burden

作　　者：钟国辉[1] 姚金海 ZHONG Guo-hui;YAO Jin-hai(Teaching and Research Department of Public Administration,Jiangxi Provincial Committee Party School of CPC,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330108;School of Economics and Management,Huzhou College,Huzhou,Zhejiang 313000)

机构地区：[1]中共江西省委党校公共管理学教研部,江西南昌330108 [2]湖州学院经济管理学院,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《价格月刊》2023年第7期14-21,共8页

基　　金：江西省社会科学规划地区项目“吉安推进生产性服务业与电子信息产业融合发展研究”(编号:23ZD001);江西省社会科学规划青年项目“城乡融合视角下进城落户农民宅基地有偿退出机制研究”(编号:23GL42);中共江西省委党校关于学习贯彻党的二十大精神教研专项课题“城乡融合助力乡村振兴研究(11)”。

摘　　要：以2007—2021年中国31个省份为例,实证分析抚养负担视角下房价波动对居民消费的影响。研究发现:房价上涨会抑制居民消费支出,但存在房价的门槛特征,在房价较高阶段对居民消费支出的抑制作用大于房价较低阶段;抚养负担加重也会对居民消费支出产生抑制作用,而少年儿童抚养负担对居民消费支出的抑制作用大于老年人口抚养负担的抑制作用;加大地方政府基本公共服务支出,有利于促进居民消费。要坚持房住不炒、防止房价过快增长、保障民生支出以及完善房地产增值收益分配机制。Taking 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2021 as an example,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of housing price fluctuations on residents’consumption from the perspective of dependency burden.The results show that rising housing prices will inhibit residents’consumption expenditure,but there is a threshold characteristic of housing prices.The inhibitory effect on residents’consumption expenditure is greater in the higher stage of housing prices than that in the lower stage of housing prices;The increasing burden of upbringing will also have a inhibitory effect on residents’consumption expenditure,and the inhibitory effect of raising children on residents’consumption expenditure is greater than that of the burden of raising the elderly population;Increasing local government expenditure on basic public services is beneficial for promoting residents’consumption.We must adhere to the policy of housing is not for speculation,prevent rapid growth in housing prices,ensure livelihood expenditures,and improve the distribution mechanism of real estatevalue-added income.

关 键 词：房价 消费支出 抚养负担 门槛模型 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]