RCEP对中国汽车及零部件产出和贸易的影响——基于动态递归GTAP的模拟分析  

The influence of RCEP on China’s output and trade of automobile and parts --Simulation analysis based on dynamic recursive GTAP

作　　者：赵青松[1] 李彦锋 ZHAO Qing-song;LI Yan-feng(Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《价格月刊》2023年第7期78-87,共10页

基　　金：2021年国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘一带一路’背景下中国与欧亚经济联盟数字贸易合作模式与建设路径研究”(编号:21XGJ004);2022年度新疆财经大学校地合作项目“以中国(新疆)自由贸易试验区建设推动核心区高质量发展研究”(编号:2022SLC007)。

摘　　要：中国是全球汽车产量最大的国家,RCEP的生效实施将对中国汽车及零部件的产出和贸易产生重要影响。通过分析中国与RCEP各成员国汽车及零部件的贸易现状及竞争与互补关系,运用动态递归GTAP模型模拟分析了RCEP对中国汽车及零部件产出和贸易的影响。研究发现,中国汽车及零部件贸易呈逐年上升态势,中国在部分汽车零部件产品上具有比较优势,且与RCEP成员国的贸易互补性较强。RCEP的关税减免将使中国汽车的产出与进出口额显著增加,但减少技术性贸易壁垒和提升互联互通、投资和劳动力等因素对中国汽车及零部件贸易的影响更为显著。中国企业要充分利用RCEP的降税安排,提升汽车产品的国际竞争力,积极扩大汽车零部件产品及电动车的出口,并做好应对贸易摩擦的准备。China is the world’s largest automobile production country.The effective implementation of RCEP will have an significant influence on China’s output and trade of automobile and parts.By analyzing the current trade situation and the competitive and complementary relationship between China and RCEP member countries of automobiles and parts,this paper uses the dynamic recursive GTAP model to simulate and analyze the influence of RCEP on China’s output and trade of automobiles and parts.The study found that China’s automobile and parts trade is on the rise year by year,with comparative advantages in some automotive component products andhighly complementarywith RCEP member countries.The RCEP tariff reduction will significantly increase China’s automobile output,import and export volume,but reduce technical barriers to trade and improve the impact of connectivity,investment,labor and other factors on China’s automobile and parts trade.China’s enterprises should make full use of the tax reduction arrangement of RCEP,enhance the international competitiveness of automobile products,actively expand the export of automobile parts and electric vehicles,and get ready to deal with trade frictions.

关 键 词：RCEP 中国汽车及零部件 产出和贸易 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]