基于分布构造与合成的作战意图理解风险预测方法  

A Risk Prediction Method for Combat Intent Understanding Based onDistributed Construction and Synthesis

作　　者：范永春 杨风暴[1] 王肖霞[1] FAN Yongchun;YANG Fengbao;WANG Xiaoxia(School of Information and Communication Engineering,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学信息与通信工程学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《中北大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期471-477,共7页Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(61972363)。

摘　　要：针对作战筹划过程中意图理解偏差所导致的作战构想及方案制定不合理、实施效果差的问题,提出了利用可能性分布构造与合成提前预测意图理解过程潜在风险的方法,有效规避作战部署过程中的潜在风险。首先,剖析影响意图理解的主要因素,在主要因素风险取值区间上构造可能性分布;其次,利用T-模算子对主要因素风险可能性分布进行合成,计算合成后的潜在风险可能性分布的最大可能度及风险值;最后,利用可能性区间数划分风险等级,计算潜在风险可能性分布与5个风险等级可能性分布间的相似测度后得出潜在风险等级。仿真实验中,场景一中意图理解过程的各潜在风险值分别为0.748,0.342,0.621,风险等级分别为四级、二级、三级,决策者根据此预测结果进行针对性调整可有效降低风险的大小,从而为战时的指挥决策提供重要的先验信息。Aiming at the problems of unreasonable operation conception and scheme formulation and poor implementation effect caused by the deviation of intention understanding in the process of operational planning,a method of predicting potential risks in the process of intention understanding in advance by using possibility distribution construction and synthesis was proposed to effectively avoid the potential risks in the process of operational deployment.Firstly,the main factors affecting intention understanding were analyzed,and the probability distribution was constructed on the risk interval of the main factors.Secondly,the maximum probability degree and risk value of the potential risk probability distribution were calculated by using the T-module operator to synthesize the risk probability distribution of the main factors.Finally,the probability interval number was used to divide the risk level,and the similarity measure between the probability distribution of the potential risk and the probability distribution of five risk levels was calculated to get the potential risk level.In the simulation experiment,the potential risk values of the intention understanding process in the scenario 1 are respectively 0.748,0.342 and 0.621,and the risk levels are respectively level 4,level 2 and level 3.The decision makers can effectively reduce the risk size by making targeted adjustments according to the predicted results,which can provide important prior information for wartime command and decision-making.

关 键 词：作战筹划 意图理解 风险预测 可能性分布 风险可能度 

分 类 号：TJ01[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]