日本经济研究报告(一):跨越新冠冲击与后新冠时期的发展课题  

Japan Economic Research Report(1):Development Issues Across the COVID-19 Shock and Post-COVID-19 Era

作　　者：张磊[1,2] Zhang Lei

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际经济政治学院,沈阳110136 [2]辽宁大学朝鲜韩国研究中心,沈阳110136

出　　处：《日本研究》2023年第2期57-71,共15页Japan Studies

基　　金：The Core University Program for Korean Studies through the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and Korean Studies Promotion Service of the Academy of Korean Studies(项目编号:AKS-2018-OLU-2250002)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情全球卫生紧急状态已经结束,但是它给人类社会的冲击是深远的,需要进行认真总结。分析日本在新冠疫情时期经济与防疫之间的关系以及走向后疫情时期的经济特点,是值得研究的重要课题。本报告包括三个部分:首先,对日本疫情演变和防疫政策进行简要回顾和总结;其次,分析疫情时期下日本经济的衰退和复苏;再次,对日本应对疫情冲击实施的经济政策进行总结;最后,分析后疫情时期日本经济的走向。日本疫情时期的社会经济状况与政策的分析分两个时期展开,在疫情前期日本经济经历了疫情冲击下的大衰退及快速反转,这一时期防疫对策与经济政策之间的相互制约,使得景气刺激政策受到了制约。在疫情中后期日本的防疫政策更趋于灵活性,特别是在转向“与病毒共存”社会的条件下,疫情与经济复苏出现了并立的倾向,开始了向后疫情时期的过渡。新冠疫情对日本经济造成的冲击是多方面的,短期内在国内生产总值、服务制造业以及就业市场等领域均有不同程度的体现,长期而言,新冠疫情加剧了日本的少子老龄化问题,使得日本的人口结构问题更加深化和复杂。日本政府先后出台了三阶段的经济政策加以应对。随着后疫情时期的到来,日本的宏观经济开始转暖,无论是生产与消费,还是企业经营和工资收入水平均有不同程度的提高。但是物价高涨与通货膨胀苗头的出现,对日本的货币政策选择提出了挑战,在短期内仍然是制约日本经济发展的重要变量,因疫情而加深的少子老龄化问题是日本经济未来发展面临的重大结构性问题。今后的日本经济在短时间内难以发生重大的改变即完成重大结构调整和实现较高速度的增长,相反其发展内外部制约机制可能会更加复杂。The COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency,but its impact on human society is profound and needs to be carefully summed up.It is important to analyze the relationship between the Japanese economy and the prevention of COVID-19 and the characteristics of the Japanese economy in the post-COVID-19 era.This report consists of three parts.First,a brief review and summary of the evolution of the epidemic and the epidemic prevention policy in Japan are made.The second is to analyze the recession and recovery of the Japanese economy under the background of the epidemic.The analysis is divided into two periods.In the early stage of the epidemic,Japan's economy experienced a great recession and rapid reversal under the impact of the epidemic.During this period,the mutual constraints between epidemic prevention countermeasures and economic policies constrained the economic stimulus policies.In the middle and later stages of the epidemic,Japan's epidemic prevention policy became more flexible,especially under the condition of"coexisting with COVID-19"society,the epidemic and economic recovery showed a tendency to go hand in hand,and began the transition to the post-epidemic period.The impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese economy is multifaceted,and in the short term,it is reflected to varying degrees in GDP,service manufacturing and job market,etc.In the long run,the COVID-19 epidemic aggravates the problem of aging of young children in Japan,making the demographic structure of Japan more profound and complicated.The Japanese government has introduced three stages of economic policy in response.With the advent of the post-epidemic era,Japan's macro economy began to warm up,whether it is production and consumption,business operation and wage income levels have improved to varying degrees.However,the emergence of rising prices and inflation poses challenges to Japan's monetary policy choices and remains an important variable restricting Japan's economic development in the short term.The aging problem of young children d

关 键 词：新冠疫情 与新冠并存 后疫情时期 少子老龄化 新资本主义 

分 类 号：F13[经济管理—世界经济] F17