陆海新通道对外贸易对重庆经济增长的效应分析  

Analysis on the Effect of the New Land-Sea Channel Foreign Trade on Chongqing’s Economic Growth

作　　者：邱巳林 QIU Silin(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,400074,Chongqing,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《特区经济》2023年第7期58-61,共4页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：建设陆海新通道,是深化国家“一带一路”倡议的需要,也是重庆建设内陆开放高地的重要动力。为了研究陆海新通道对外贸易对重庆经济增长的效应,本文采用计量经济学中的ADF检验、Johansen协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,分析了重庆市1987—2018年的GDP以及进出口数据,得出了重庆市对外贸易变化与重庆市经济增长之间的关系。结果表明,重庆市的GDP以及进出口总值之间存在长期均衡关系,进出口总额是GDP增长的格兰杰原因,一定程度上重庆市进口以及出口增长能够促进经济增长。文后根据研究结果以及陆海新通道的实际情况,对陆海新通道的对外贸易以及重庆市经济增长协调发展提出了对策和建议。The construction of new land and sea passages is the need of deepening the national“One Belt and One Road”,and also an important driving force for Chongqing to build itself into an open inland highland.In order to study the effect of land-sea new passage foreign trade on Chongqing’s economic growth,this paper uses econometrics ADF test,Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test to analyze chongqing’s GDP and import and export data from 1987 to 2018,and concludes the relationship between chongq⁃ing’s foreign trade change and chongqing’s economic growth.The results show that there is a long-term equi⁃librium relationship between CHONGQING’s GDP and the total value of import and export.The total value of im⁃port and export is the Granger cause of GDP growth.To some extent,chongqing’s import and export growth can promote economic growth.Finally,according to the research results and the actual situation of the new landsea passage,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the foreign trade of the new land-sea pas⁃sage and the coordinated development of Chongqing’s economic growth.

关 键 词：陆海新通道 重庆 对外贸易 经济增长计量分析 

分 类 号：F712.9[经济管理—产业经济]