经济周期、交易成本与有色金属业投资——基于金融加速器理论  

Economic Cycle,Transaction Costs,and Investment in the Non-ferrous Metals Industry——Based on the Theory of Financial Accelerator

作　　者：方文龙 赖丹[1,2] 吴一丁 FANG Wenlong;LAI Dan;WU Yiding(Research Institute of Nonferrous Metal Industry Development,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou,Jiangxi 341000;Ganjiang Innovation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Ganzhou,Jiangxi 341000)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学有色金属产业发展研究院,江西赣州341000 [2]中科院赣江创新研究院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《管理现代化》2023年第4期11-20,共10页Modernization of Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“稀土产品全球贸易网络格局演化与中国战略地位提升研究”(项目编号:21BGL182);江西省社会科学基金智库峰会重大项目“统一大市场背景下江西有色金属产业与新能源产业融合协调发展路径与对策研究”(项目编号:23ZK05)。

摘　　要：当前中国宏观经济下行压力持续增大,如何稳投资亟待理论界和实务界深入探索。与已有研究主要关注金融加速器对宏观经济的影响不同,本文基于2000-2021年中国有色金属业上市公司平衡面板数据,采用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和面板门槛模型从金融加速器的微观理论机制视角研究经济周期对有色金属业投资的影响,以及交易成本的作用。结果表明:与古典经济学提出的微观企业投资呈顺周期变化不同,中国有色金属业投资呈逆周期变动;交易成本呈逆周期变动;以现金流和偿债能力两条路径表征的交易成本在经济周期与有色金属业投资间存在中介效应;进一步分析表明,交易成本在经济周期与有色金属业投资间存在非线性的门槛效应,只有当现金流和利息保障倍数低于0.0195和0.0371的门槛值时,才能发挥有色金属业的逆周期调控作用;异质性分析表明,有色金属业交易成本的门槛效应只存在于国企样本中,非国企无门槛效应。本研究不仅从金融加速器理论视角拓展了对微观企业投资的认知,而且为有色金属业助力我国“双碳”目标的实现以及稳经济大盘提供了参考。The COVID-19 is superimposed with shrinking demand,Supply shock and weaker expectations,and the downward pressure on China's macro-economy continues to increase.How to stabilize investment needs in-depth exploration by the theoretical and practical circles.Different from the existing studies that mainly focus on the impact of financial accelerators on the macro-economy,based on the balanced Panel data of listed companies in China's nonferrous metals industry from 2000 to 2021,the fixed effect model,Mesomeric effect model and panel threshold model are used to study the impact of economic cycle on investment in the nonferrous metals industry from the perspective of the micro theoretical mechanism of financial accelerators,as well as the role of transaction costs.The results show that the investment in China's nonferrous metals industry shows a counter cyclical change,which is different from the pro cyclical change in micro enterprise investment proposed by Classical economics;The transaction cost shows a countercyclical variation;There is a Mesomeric effect between the economic cycle and non-ferrous metal industry investment in the transaction cost represented by cash flow and solvency;Further analysis shows that there is a nonlinear threshold effect of transaction costs between the economic cycle and investment in the non-ferrous metal industry.Only when cash flow and Times interest earned are lower than the threshold values of 0.0195 and 0.0371 can the countercyclical regulation of the non-ferrous metal industry be exerted;Heterogeneity analysis shows that the threshold effect of transaction costs in the non-ferrous metal industry only exists in the sample of state-owned enterprises,and there is no threshold effect in non-state-owned enterprises.This study not only expands the understanding of micro enterprise investment from the perspective of financial accelerator theory,but also provides a reference for the non-ferrous metal industry to help achieve China's"dual carbon"goals and stabilize the overall economy.

关 键 词：经济周期 有色金属业投资 金融加速器 门槛效应 中介效应 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济] F275