房地产投资、信贷效率与实体经济  

Study on Real Estate Investment,Credit Efficiency,and the Real Economy

作　　者：赵先立[1,2] 谈元元 ZHAO Xian-li;TAN Yuan-yuan(Lanzhou Central Sub-branch of People's Bank of China,Lanzhou 730000,China;Tianshui City Central Sub-branch of People's Bank of China,Tianshui 741000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行兰州中心支行,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国人民银行天水市中心支行,甘肃天水741000

出　　处：《兰州财经大学学报》2023年第4期92-102,共11页Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：促进房地产、金融业等虚拟经济与实体经济的均衡发展是畅通国内大循环、推动国际国内双循环的关键,而近年来房地产市场的过度繁荣影响了实体经济的健康发展。房地产开发投资额超常增长作为房地产市场过度膨胀的重要表现之一,主要来源于银行信贷,其在很大程度上影响金融资本在各行业主体之间的配置关系,将会系统性地冲击宏观经济的平稳运行。本文选取31个省份2010—2021年的面板数据,并采用系统GMM方法构建中介效应模型,分析房地产开发投资对金融服务实体经济效率的影响机制,并探究信贷效率在这一机制中是否起到中介作用。结果表明:房地产投资对金融服务实体经济效率有显著负向的直接影响,各地区之间影响程度存在一定差异;信贷效率在这一影响机制中不存在显著的中介效应。Promoting the balanced development between the virtual economy,such as real estate and finance,and the real economy is crucial for facilitating domestic circulation and driving the dual circulation of the international and domestic markets.However,in recent years,the excessive prosperity of the real estate market has adversely affected the healthy growth of the real economy.The extraordinary growth in real estate development investment stands as a significant manifestation of the overinflation in the real estate market,primarily originating from bank credit.This phenomenon significantly influences the allocation of financial capital among various industry entities,potentially leading to systemic impact on the smooth functioning of the macroeconomy.By utilizing panel data from 31 provinces covering the period from 2010 to 2021 and,the study adopts the System GMM approach to construct a mediation effect model aiming to analyze the impact mechanism of real estate development investment on the efficiency of financial services to the real economy and investigate whether credit efficiency plays an intermediary role in this mechanism.The results indicate that real estate investment has a significantly negative direct impact on the efficiency of financial services to the real economy,with varying degrees of influence across different regions.However,no significant intermediary effect of credit efficiency is observed in this impact mechanism.

关 键 词：房地产投资 金融服务实体经济 中介效应 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学] F299.23