考虑信息情感和环境噪音的舆情与抢购链式危机演化规律  

Evolution Law of the Chain Crisis Towards Public Opinion and Panic Buying with Information Sentiment and Environmental Noise

作　　者：王治莹[1,2] 赵宏丽 聂慧芳 WANG Zhi-ying;ZHAO Hong-li;NIE Hui-fang(School of Management Science&Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan 243032,China;Center for Corporate Governance and Operation,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032 [2]安徽工业大学公司治理与运营研究中心,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2023年第7期246-255,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72074002,71704001,72171024);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(2208085Y20);安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点资助项目(SK2019A0075)。

摘　　要：针对当前研究较少考虑到信息情感和环境噪音对舆情与抢购链式危机演化影响的现状,本文构建了考虑噪音异质情感倾向的链式危机演化模型并研究其演化规律。首先,采用多案例研究,从属性层次构造该链式危机的结构化描述及其与系统建模研究的关联关系,并提炼环境属性影响下该链式危机演进机理的规范性表达;其次,拓展噪音异质有界信任模型刻画环境属性中信息情感和环境噪音对参与者决策的影响,同时借鉴传染病模型构建链式危机的演化模型,推导信息情感和环境噪音对链式危机演化再生数和平衡点稳定性的影响;最后,以2020年新冠疫情中舆情与抢购链式危机为例验证模型的有效性,并考察信息情感和环境噪音对该链式危机演化过程的影响。Through the real cases ranging from panic buying for isatis root induced by the public opinion of“isatis root may keep SARS away”in 2003 to the behaviors of scrambling for drugs overnight provoked by the public opinion of“shuanghuanglian oral liquid can suppress COVID-19”in 2020,it is not difficult to find that the chain crisis towards public opinion and panic buying(POPB)has seriously threatened people’s normal life and brought enormous challenges on social harmony and stability.Thus,it is of significance and necessity to conduct researches on the evolution law of the chain crisis towards POPB for its emergency response.In view of the impact of information sentiment and environmental noise(ISEN)on the evolution process of chain crisis are rarely considered in the existing studies,a dynamic model incorporating ISEN is proposed to research the evolution law of the chain crisis.Supported by multiple cases study,the structural description on the chain crisis towards POPB from attribute level is firstly constructed,and accordingly,the association between such structural description and system modeling of the chain crisis is established.Based on this,the normative expression of the chain crisis evolution mechanism under the influence of environmental attribute is extracted.Then,the heterogeneous bounded confidence model with environmental noise is extended to depict the impact of ISEN in environmental attributes on participants’decision-making,and the dynamic model referring to the traditional epidemic model is established to describe the chain crisis evolution.Further,mean-field equations of the proposed model are given,and the roles of ISEN on analytical solution for the reproduction number of chain crisis evolution and stability of POPB-free equilibrium are deduced by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria and LaSalle’s invariance principle respectively.The mathematic derivations show that the increase of positive sentiment orientation or the decrease of negative sentiment orientation and environmental noise te

关 键 词：舆情 抢购 链式危机 演化规律 信息情感 环境噪音 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学] C934[经济管理—管理学] O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]