贸易摩擦中关税冲击的动态影响  

Research on the Economic Recovery Policy and Wealth Distribution after the Trade Friction

作　　者：杨钰杰 张晨欣 侯晓辉[2] YANG Yu-jie;ZHANG Chen-xing;Hou Xiao-hui

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心 [2]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2023年第8期174-188,共15页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:71473189)。

摘　　要：在中美贸易摩擦背景下,建立国际前沿的异质性动态宏观一般均衡模型,对两国贸易摩擦机制和政策效果进行模拟分析,研究发现,(1)不同于传统的同质性模型,考虑到资产调整成本和价格粘性的异质性模型的模拟结果显示,增加关税会在短期降低两国的消费,提高劳动力供给,造成总需求萎缩。(2)贸易摩擦的加征关税会提高富人的财富水平,降低穷人资产,扩大贫富差距,不利于共同富裕推进。(3)扩张性的货币政策虽然能扩大流动性但是对优化财富分布结构、刺激企业生产和带领经济走出贸易摩擦困境的效果有限;(4)相比于货币政策,企业生产力的提高能在总供给和总需求两个方向上提振经济,优化异质性家户的财富分布,推动经济供给侧和需求侧改革。因此,政府在科研技术方面对企业的财政和政策支持是走出贸易摩擦困境,实现经济高质量发展的最有效手段。In the context of trade frictions between China and the United States,a dynamic macro general equilibrium model of heterogeneity at the international forefront was established to simulate and analyze the trade friction mechanisms and policy effects between the two countries.The study found that(1)unlike traditional homogeneity models,the simulation results of the heterogeneity model considering asset adjustment costs and price stickiness showed that increasing tariffs would reduce consumption in both countries in the short term,increase labor supply,and cause total demand to shrink.(2)The imposition of tariffs on trade frictions will increase the wealth level of the rich,reduce the assets of the poor,expand the gap between the rich and the poor,and is not conducive to the advancement of Common prosperity.(3)Although expansionary monetary policy can expand liquidity,its effect on optimizing wealth distribution structure,stimulating enterprise production,and leading the economy out of trade friction difficulties is limited;(4)Compared with monetary policy,the improvement of enterprise productivity can boost the economy in the two directions of Aggregate supply and total demand,optimize the wealth distribution of heterogeneous households,and promote the supply side and demand side reform of the economy.Therefore,the government’s financial and policy support for enterprises in scientific research and technology is the most effective means to overcome trade frictions and achieve high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：异质性动态随机一般均衡 贸易摩擦 货币政策 财富分布 共同富裕 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]