中国房价稳定性测度、影响因素识别与货币政策“跨周期”设计  

Housing Price Stability Measurement,Influence Factors Identification and“Cross-Cycle”Design of Monetary Policy

作　　者：张龙[1] 申瑛琦 Zhang Long;Shen Yingqi

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2023年第8期1-16,共16页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国经济韧性的形成机理、动态评价与政策协同研究”(21&ZD073)的资助。

摘　　要：本文在测度中国房价稳定性的基础上识别房价稳定性影响因素,并刻画房地产价格对经济增长的阶段冲击特征和货币政策对房地产价格的动态影响,重点解析货币政策“跨周期”设计问题。结果表明:(1)中国房价稳定性存在高低位阶段差异,房价稳定性水平与房地产政策调控效应消失速度有关,房价稳定性存在“惯性”特征;(2)中国房价稳定性的主要影响因素为需求、供给和货币政策冲击,供需冲击的实时驱动功效明显。货币政策有盯住房地产价格的现实需求,同期和滞后影响接近;(3)在多重评价指标下,房地产价格会对经济增长产生弱负向影响,货币政策的房地产价格效应具有非对称性特征,变量之间的影响程度与房价稳定性高低水准有关。紧缩性货币政策对经济增长的负向影响有限,宽松性货币政策不会带来经济过热风险,以牺牲“菜单成本”为代价的短期货币政策操作要慎重,兼顾长短期目标的“跨周期”和“逆周期”货币政策要有机结合。This paper accurately identifies the influence factors of housing price stability on the basis of measuring the housing prices stability.Further,it describes the shock characteristics of real estate prices on economic growth and the time-varying dynamic shock of monetary policy on real estate prices,and focuses on demonstrating the“cross-cycle”design of monetary policy.The results show that:First,there are high and low differences in the housing prices stability,the high and low levels of housing price stability are related to the duration of the real estate market regulation policy,and the housing prices stability has the characteristics of“inertia”at individual points in time.Second,the influence factors of housing prices persistent are demand,supply,and monetary policy shocks.Demand and supply shocks have obvious influence effects,and monetary policy shock has a real demand for pegging housing prices.The same and lagging shock is close.Third,under multiple evaluation indicators,housing prices have a negative spillover effect on economic growth,and there is a positive relationship between the shock intensity and the housing prices stability.Monetary policy has an“asymmetric”regulation effect on housing prices.The tightening monetary policy has limited weakening effect on economic growth and the loose monetary policy does not bring the risk of overheating.Short-term policy operations at the expense of“menu costs”must be cautious,“cross-cycle”and“counter-cyclical”monetary policy must be organically combined that take into account long-term and short-term goals.

关 键 词：房价稳定性 影响因素 货币政策 内生TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]