基于LMR的中国石笋氧同位素记录在过去千年气候同化中的应用初探  

LAST MILLENNIUM CLIMATE REANALYSIS WITH AN EXPANDED PROXY DATABASE USING CHINESE STALAGMITE RECORDS

作　　者：彭友兵 吴怡 程海[2] 郝赢玺 崔瑜 PENG Youbing;WU Yi;CHENG Hai;HAO Yingxi;CUI Yu(Department of Earth Environmental Science,School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering,Xi'an Jiao Tong University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi;Institute of Global Environmental Change,Xi'an Jiao Tong University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院地球环境科学系,陕西西安710054 [2]西安交通大学全球环境变化研究院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2023年第4期1066-1075,共10页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:42175057)资助。

摘　　要：本研究利用中国石笋氧同位素记录填补了LMR(Last Millennium Reanalysis)的代用资料数据库在中国东部的空白,并分析了代用资料库优化后LMR对中国降水的同化能力。结果表明,中国石笋氧同位素记录的添加提升了LMR对中国东部36°N以南和西北地区降水的同化能力,能较好再现过去530年两个地区发生的旱涝事件。同化数据表明过去530年中国东部发生了干旱和雨涝事件各5次,西北地区发生了5次干旱事件和4次雨涝事件。其中中国东部1470~1526年、1918~1940年干旱事件和1877~1889年、1896~1914年雨涝事件可能主要受北极涛动(AO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)共同作用,当AO、NAO和AMO处于显著正位相则中国东部易发生干旱事件,负位相则易发生雨涝事件;1808~1826年干旱事件和1827~1837年、1941~1950年和1977~2000年雨涝事件则主要受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)影响,当PDO处于显著负位相则中国东部易发生干旱事件,正位相则易发生雨涝事件;1689~1781年干旱事件主要受PDO负位相、AO和NAO正位相影响;而1579~1607年干旱事件与大气涛动间的联系并不密切。在中国西北地区,18世纪末期之后接连发生的降水异常事件可能与AO、NAO和AMO的位相转变存在联系。The set of assimilated proxy records of the Last Millennium Reanalysis(LMR)is the focus of this work.Results based on an extensive proxy database with Chinese stalagmite records show that the new reconstructions of precipitation are significantly improved in south of 36°N over Eastern China and Northwestern China.According to the results from the new reconstructions of precipitation,five droughts and five pluvials occurred in Eastern China and five droughts and four pluvials occurred in Northwestern China during the last 530 years.Most of them overlap with the results based on the independent reconstructions of Asian summer precipitation(RAP)and related with the atmospheric oscillation.The Arctic Oscillation(AO),North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)play an important role in the 1470~1526 A.D.,1918~1940 A.D.droughts and 1877~1889 A.D.,1896~1914 A.D.pluvials occurred in Eastern China.A positive AO,NAO and AMO index causes droughts in Eastern China.The pluvials occured during negative AO,NAO and AMO index.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)may be the primary driver in the occurrence of the 1808~1826 A.D.droughts and 1827~1837 A.D.,1941~1950 A.D.and 1977~2000 A.D.pluvials occurred in Eastern China.A negative PDO index causes droughts in Eastern China.The pluvials occured during positive PDO index.The negative PDO and positive AO,NAO influence is found to dominate the droughts of 1689~1781 A.D..A consistent relationship between the 1579~1607 A.D.drought and the atmospheric oscillation could not be found.Our analyses also indicate that the AO,NAO and AMO play an important role in the drought and pluvial occurred after the 17th century in Northwestern China.

关 键 词：LMR 同化 旱涝事件 大气涛动 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]