过去千年东亚季风环流与内部变率对中国东部年代际降水分型的影响研究  

A STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUMMER RAINFALL PATTERN AND THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND INTERNAL VARIABILITY IN EASTERN CHINA AT DECADAL SCALE OVER THE PAST MILLENNIUM

作　　者：曹博文 严蜜 刘征宇 刘健[1,2,4] 宁亮 温琴 孙炜毅 刘雅雯 曾程 李汉文 孔心唯 CAO Bowen;YAN Mi;LIU Zhengyu;LIU Jian;NING Liang;WEN Qin;SUN Weiyi;LIU Yawen;ZENG Cheng;LI Hanwen;KONG Xinwei(Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment,Ministry of Education,State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province,Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu;Laoshan Laboratory,Qingdao 266061,Shandong;Department of Geography,Ohio State University,Ohio USA;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems,School of Mathematical Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点试验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点试验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]崂山实验室,山东青岛266061 [3]俄亥俄州立大学地理系,美国 [4]江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点试验室,南京师范大学数学科学学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2023年第4期1076-1088,共13页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:42130604、42075049、41971108和41971021);国家自然科学基金中瑞合作交流项目(批准号:42111530182);中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目(批准号:SKLLQG1930和SKLLQG1820);江苏省高校优势学科建设项目(批准号:164320H116)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用美国大气研究中心开展的过去千年集合模拟试验数据(CESM-LME),研究了过去千年(851~2005年)年代尺度上中国东部夏季降水空间分布格局与东亚季风环流及海温内部变率的关系。过去千年年代尺度上,中国东部夏季降水主要包括两种模态分别是:经向偶极型和经向三极型。研究发现,内部变率是影响年代尺度上中国东部夏季降水分型的主要因素,局地季风环流的强弱对降水模态出现的概率影响较小,即在内部变率的作用下,无论季风环流强年还是弱年,偶极型降水模态出现的概率都大于三极型。与前人发现一致的是,年代际降水模态变化主要由太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)位相组合通过遥相关波列影响,当PDO和AMO处于相同位相时,增强了偶极型降水模态;当PDO和AMO处于相反位相时,增强了三极型降水模态。进一步分析发现PDO的变化在偶极型模态的形成中起主要作用,而AMO的变化在三极型模态的形成中起主要作用,即二者对应的“环球遥相关”波列和“丝绸之路遥相关”波列各自在偶极型和三极型模态形成中起着主导作用。The relationship between the spatial distribution pattern of summer precipitation in Eastern China and the East Asian monsoon circulation,along with the internal variability,at the decadal scale over the past millennium(851~2005)is investigated using the simulation data from the ensemble simulation experiment of the past millennium(CESM⁃LME)conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR).There are two main modes of summer precipitation in Eastern China at the decadal scale over the past millennium including:meridional dipole pattern and meridional tripole pattern,respectively.It is found that the probability of occurrence of dipole precipitation patterns in strong(weak)monsoon circulation is 41%(40%),and the probability of occurrence of tripole precipitation patterns is 20%(21%).That is to say,the probability of the dipole pattern is greater than that of the tripole pattern in both strong and weak monsoon circulation years.This indicates that the intensity of the local summer monsoon circulation has little influence on the probability of precipitation patterns at decadal scale.The internal variability is the main factor that affects the summer precipitation pattern in Eastern China at the decadal scale.As has been found previously,the interdecadal precipitation distribution pattern is mainly influenced by the combined phases between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)through teleconnections.In this study,we further found that when the PDO and AMO variations are in the same phase(PDO-/+coupling with AMO-/+),the PDO variation plays the dominant role,inducing a“Circum⁃global Teleconnection”-like wave train pattern,which enhances the dipole pattern of summer precipitation.When the PDO and AMO variations are out⁃of⁃phase(PDO-/+coupling with AMO+/-),the AMO variation plays the main role,triggering a decadal“Silk Road Teleconnection”⁃like pattern over Eurasia,which enhances the tripole pattern of summer precipitation.

关 键 词：过去千年 降水分型 季风环流 海温 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]