过去千年中国西北干旱区温度变化特征及成因分析  

AN ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSES OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN ARID NORTHWEST CHINA OVER THE PAST MILLENNIUM

作　　者：刘浩宇 孟现洁 唐佳慧 靳春寒 LIU Haoyu;MENG Xianjie;TANG Jiahui;JIN Chunhan(College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,Xinjiang University,Ürümqi 830046,Xinjiang;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang University,Ürümqi 830046,Xinjiang)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学新疆绿洲生态自治区重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2023年第4期1089-1100,共12页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:42205055、42130604、42075049、41971108和41971021);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(批准号:2022D01C78)共同资助。

摘　　要：本研究基于过去千年多成员集合模拟试验(CESM-LME)数据,在与同化资料(LMR)、参与CMIP6两个模式(MRI-ESM2和MIROC-ES2L)过去千年模拟结果以及观测/再分析资料(CN05.1)进行对比验证模式模拟结果可靠性的基础上,分析了中国西北干旱区过去千年地表温度变化特征和影响因子。研究表明,CESM-LME全强迫试验能够较好地模拟出中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期温度异常特征,模式模拟的中国西北干旱区中世纪气候异常期温度变化幅度与现代暖期的相当。通过计算不同尺度上各单因子敏感性试验与全强迫试验中地表温度序列相关系数发现,不仅在年尺度上,年代际、多年代际、百年尺度上火山活动强迫出的地表温度序列与全强迫试验中的均呈现显著的相关关系,但二者的关系在过去千年并不稳定;另外,1850年后温室气体排放对西北干旱区地表温度升高起到了主导作用。根据火山喷发纬度位置和气溶胶注入量两个标准将过去千年火山活动分为3种类型,即北半球火山(NHV)、赤道火山(TRV)和南半球火山(SHV)。NHV爆发对西北干旱区降温的影响最强,TRV次之,但是二者差别不大,均在爆发10~12个月之内降温至-2.0℃以下。与以往研究不同的是,SHV爆发后中国西北干旱区地表温度在10个月后降温幅度能达到-1.7℃,且该冷异常可持续到22个月之后。Using the simulations from the Community Earth System Model⁃Last Millennium Ensemble(CESM⁃LME),the characteristics and causes of the annual mean surface temperature changes in arid Northwest China(29°~53°N,70°~117°E)over the past millennium(850~2005 A.D.)have been analyzed.The results show that,comparison with the Last Millennium Reanalysis data,MRI⁃ESM2 and MIROC⁃ES2L models'last millennium simulations,and the observation/reanalysis data(CN05.1),the CESM⁃LME all forcing(AF)experiment is proved to be reasonable in simulating the surface temperature in arid Northwest China.The simulated annual mean temperature anomaly derived from the all forcing experiment features three typical warm and cold epochs,i.e.,the Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the Present Warm Period(PWP).For arid Northwest China,the warm amplitude of the MCA is comparable to that in the PWP.By calculating the correlation coefficients of the annual mean surface temperature derived from the AF experiment with each sensitive experiment at different timescales respectively,it is found that the surface temperature forced by volcanic activity is significantly correlated with the surface temperature derived from the AF experiment both on the annual,decadal,multi⁃decadal,and centennial timescales,but the relationship is not stable.In addition,greenhouse gas emissions played a crucial role in the increase of surface temperature in arid Northwest China after 1850.To explore the effects of the volcano,all the volcanic activity over the past millennium can be classified into three types:Northern hemisphere volcano(NHV),Tropical volcano(TRV),and South Hemispheric volcano(SHV).NHV eruptions have the strongest cooling effect on the arid Northwest China region,TRV shows similar cooling efficiencies,and the temperature anomaly is below-2.0℃during 10~12 months.Different from previous studies,after the SHV,the surface temperature in arid Northwest China can drop by-1.7℃at 10 months,and the cold anomaly can last until 22 mo

关 键 词：过去千年 气候模拟 中国西北干旱区 温度变化 成因分析 火山活动 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]