明末清初华北夏季降水年代际变化的模拟研究  

SIMULATION OF DECADAL VARIATION OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CHINA IN THE LATE MING AND EARLY QING DYNASTIES

作　　者：邵诗雨 李香钰 徐志清[3] 陈葛般若 张华典 刘勇 SHAO Shiyu;LI Xiangyu;XU Zhiqing;CHEN Gebanruo;ZHANG Huadian;LIU Yong(Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,Hubei;Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards,Wuhan 430074,Hubei;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Graduate School of Economics,Osaka University,Osaka 5600043)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院大气科学系,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国气象局-中国地质大学(武汉)极端天气气候与水文地质灾害研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100101 [5]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [6]日本大阪大学经济学研究科,大阪5600043

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2023年第4期1113-1122,共10页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(批准号:2018YFA0605602)资助。

摘　　要：明末清初中国社会动荡加剧,王朝更迭,伴随着华北地区较为明显的年代际气候变化。本研究使用CESM-LME(CESM Last Millennium Ensemble)模拟数据,结合重建证据,对明末清初华北夏季降水年代际气候变化特征和原因进行了分析。重建证据显示,1644年华北夏季降水发生由少到多的年代际转变,中国东部夏季降水呈“南旱北涝”的变化格局。CESM-LME集合试验成员012能够模拟出这样的年代际转变,但模拟的变化幅度偏弱且转变发生时间略晚。模拟显示,北太平洋出现类PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,太平洋年代际振荡)正位相的海温年代际异常,引起日本海附近低压异常。同时,热带太平洋呈现类拉尼娜型海温异常,使得菲律宾以东洋面对流增强、降水增加,通过北传罗斯贝波激发类东亚-太平洋遥相关,导致西北太平洋副热带高压增强西伸和日本海附近异常低压的加强。对应于这样的环流异常,华北有北风异常,长江以南有南风异常,华北地区南部水汽辐合增强,有异常的上升运动,华北夏季降水年代际增多,并伴随着东亚副热带西风急流的向南移动。伴随华北夏季降水年代际转变,华北土地承载力提高,社会系统逐渐恢复和稳定。In the Late Ming and Early Qing dynasties,social unrest intensified in China in the form of peasant uprising and dynasty change,and was accompanied by the obvious inter⁃decade climate fluctuations in North China.Combined the reconstruction evidence with the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble(CESM⁃LME)simulation data,we analyzed the characteristics of the interdecadal climate change of summer(from May to September)rainfall in North China during this period and explored the underlying mechanism preliminarily.According to the reconstruction,the summer precipitation in North China became wetter decadally around 1644 A.D.,with“south drought and north flood”over East China.Focused on the decadal change of the summer precipitation in North China,we evaluated the correlation between the reconstruction and simulations,and investigated the abrupt climate changing points through the 9⁃year moving t⁃test.The full⁃forcing ensemble member(012)of CESM⁃LME outputs reproduced the above decadal climate change,although the simulated decadal climate change was weaker and occured two years later,compared to the reconstrution.Based on the full⁃forcing ensemble member(012),the interdecadal anomaly of sea surface temperature with PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)-like positive phase in the North Pacific Ocean,contributed importantly to the quasi⁃barotropic low pressure anomaly near the Sea of Japan.At the same time,the La Nina⁃like sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Pacific enhanced the convection activity and the precipitation on the east of the Philippines,and strengthened the North Western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal low pressure near the Sea of Japan through the northward Rossby waves with East Asia⁃Pacific like teleconnection.Correspondingly,there were north wind anomaly in North China and south wind anomaly to the south of the Yangtze River.The summer precipitation in North China experienced decadal increase in general due to the enhanced convergence of water vapor flux and the streng

关 键 词：明末清初 华北夏季降水 年代际转折 太平洋年代际振荡 古气候模拟 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]