新旧动能转换推动经济双循环协调发展的效应检验  

Test on Effect of Old-to-new Growth Driver Conversion in Promoting Dual Circulation Coordinated Development

作　　者：尹希果[1] 张藤 Yin Xiguo;Zhang Teng(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第16期79-84,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(20CRK006)。

摘　　要：文章基于2003—2020年30个省份面板数据,构建综合指数,建立有调节的中介模型探讨新旧动能转换、产业集聚和双循环协调发展的关联机制,并检验了政府干预在传导路径中的调节作用。研究发现:新旧动能转换对经济双循环协调发展具有正向促进作用,产业集聚存在正向的部分中介效应,但间接路径所占比重较低;政府干预强化了新旧动能转换对双循环协调发展的直接效应,且随干预水平提高正向调节作用不断增强;当政府干预处于低水平时,产业专业化集聚间接效应占比高;当政府干预处于高水平时,产业多样化集聚间接效应占比提高;当政府干预水平位于均值-0.33与-0.02个单位区间时,新旧动能转换通过同时促进产业专业化集聚和多样化集聚推动双循环协调发展。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020,this paper constructs a composite index,and then establishes a moderated mediation model to explore the correlation mechanism of old-to-new growth driver conversion,industrial agglomeration and the coordinated development of the dual circulation.Finally,the paper tests the regulating role of government intervention in the transmission pathway.The findings go as below:The conversion of old-to-new growth drivers has a positive role in promoting the coordinated development of the dual circulation,and there is a positive partial mediating effect of industrial agglomeration,but the proportion of the indirect path is low.Government intervention strengthens the direct effect of the conversion of old-to-new drivers on the coordinated development of the dual circulation,and the positive moderating effect is enhanced with the increase of intervention level.When government intervention is at a low level,the proportion of indirect effects of industrial specialization and agglomeration is high.When government intervention is at a high level,the proportion of indirect effects of industrial diversification and agglomeration will increase.When the level of government intervention is in the range of-0.33 and-0.02 units,the conversion of old-to-new growth drivers promotes the coordinated development of the dual circulation by simultaneously promoting industrial specialization and diversification agglomeration.

关 键 词：新旧动能转换 双循环 协调发展 产业集聚 有调节的中介模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]