新发展格局下中国农产品贸易规模变动的驱动因素研究  

Study on Driving Factors of China Agricultural Products Trade Scale Change under New Development Pattern

作　　者：张雅茜 曹冲 布娲鹣·阿布拉[1,3] ZHANG Yaxi;CAO Chong;BU Wajian

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]皖西学院经济与管理学院,六安237012 [3]新疆农业大学中亚研究中心,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《世界农业》2023年第9期64-72,共9页World Agriculture

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目“基于口岸经济带促进新疆门户经济高质量发展的路径”(2022D01A170)。

摘　　要：面对百年未有之大变局,中国加快构建双循环新发展格局,不断推动农产品贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2002—2020年UN Comtrade数据库农产品贸易数据,运用修正后的CMS模型,对中国农产品进出口变动分别从贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易竞争力三个方面进行了双向分解,从动态视角对中国农产品进出口变动的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:从中国农产品出口方面看,出口竞争效应是促进第三阶段出口贸易规模增长的主导因素;出口结构效应的重要性上升,尤其是市场结构效应所发挥的影响显著增强;需求规模效应逐渐疲软。从中国农产品进口方面看,进口竞争力效应一直是影响中国农产品进口贸易规模增长变动的决定性因素;供给规模效应对进口逐渐表现出抑制效应;进口结构效应逐渐提升,其中产品结构效应表现为阻碍作用,市场结构效应表现为促进作用。In the face of profound changes unseen in a century,it is of great significance for China to accelerated the construction of a new pattern of circular development and continuously promote the high-quality development of agricultural trade.Based on the agricultural products trade data of UN Comtrade database from 2002 to 2020,this paper uses the revised CMS model to decompose the changes of China agricultural products import and export from three aspects:trade scale,trade structure and trade competitiveness,and effectively analyzes the influencing factors of China agricultural products import and export changes from a dynamic perspective.The research results show that:In terms of China agricultural products export,the effect of export competition is the leading factor to promote the growth of export trade scale in the third stage;the importance of export structure effects has increased,especially the significant increase in the impact of market structure effects;the scale effect of demand is gradually weakening.From the perspective of China agricultural products import,the effect of import competitiveness has always been the decisive factor affecting the growth and change of China agricultural imports;the supply scale effect gradually shows a restraining effect on imports;the effect of import structure has gradually improved,with the effect of product structure as a hindrance and the effect of market structure as a promotion.

关 键 词：农产品贸易 进出口 修正CMS模型 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6