基于GTD数据库的全球涉矿恐怖活动分析及启示  

Analysis and Suggestions of Global Mine-related Terrorist Activities Based on GTD

作　　者：陈秀法[1] 何学洲[1] 张伟波[1] CHEN Xiufa;HE Xuezhou;ZHANG Weibo(Development Research Center,China Geological Survey)

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局发展研究中心

出　　处：《现代矿业》2023年第8期204-207,共4页Modern Mining

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目(编号:DD20190455,DD20211404)。

摘　　要：了解全球涉矿恐怖活动的特点,对于有效规避和降低国际矿业投资的风险具有重要意义。对1970—2020年以来的全球涉矿恐怖活动的时空分布、伤亡人数、攻击武器、攻击对象、施暴恐怖组织进行了分析。结果表明,涉矿恐怖活动总体呈现6个特点,时间上基本遵循10 a周期律,呈双峰式分布;空间上集中在三洲四区,以发展中资源大国为主;涉矿恐怖活动主要以暴力攻击和劫持人质为主,枪支和炸药是造成人员伤亡的最致命武器;被攻击对象多为涉矿恐怖活动本国公民,且在海外开展矿业活动的中国公民已经成为被攻击对象之一;恐怖组织是涉矿恐怖活动的主要制造者,近8成涉矿恐怖活动由恐怖组织实施;部分涉矿恐怖活动高发区,与我国企业国际矿业投资合作区重叠。基于以上特点,提出加快海外安全保护体系和机制构建,加强涉矿恐怖活动的数据采集、研究和风险预警,做实企业境外矿业投资前的总体评估和应对预案的建议。Understanding the characteristics of global mining-related terrorist activities is very impor-tant to avoid the risk of international mining investment.Characteristics of global mining-related terrorist ac-tivities from 1970 to 2020,such as the time and space distribution,the number of victims,attack weapons,attack objects and terrorist organizations,has been analyzed.Results show that the overall mining-related terrorist activities generally present six characteristics.It’s basically follow the ten-year cycle law in time,with a bimodal distribution.Mining-related terrorist activities are mainly violent attacks and hijacking hos-tages.Guns and explosives are the most fatal weapons that cause casualties.Most of the attacked targets are local citizens of mining countries.Chinese citizens who have explored mining activities have become one of the attack objects.The terrorist organization is the main manufacturer of mining-related terrorist activities.Nearly 80%of the mining-related terrorist activities had been implemented by the terrorist organization.Some of the areas with high incidence of mining-related terrorist activities overlap with the international min-ing investment cooperation zone of Chinese enterprises.Based on the above characteristics,it is proposed to speed up the construction of overseas security protection system and mechanism,strengthen the data collec-tion,research and risk warning of mining-related terrorist activities.Enterprises should make full assess-ment and response plans before overseas mining investment.

关 键 词：涉矿恐怖活动 时空分布 国际矿业投资 GTD 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] F416.1[政治法律—政治学]