基于核算模型的城市碳中和路径研究方法构建——以成都市为例  

A Quantitative Investigation of Carbon Neutrality Pathways for Cities based on Multiple Scenarios

作　　者：杨帆[1] 杨秀[2] YANG Fan;YANG Xiu

机构地区：[1]清华大学建筑学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2023年第6期113-123,共11页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“碳达峰碳中和路径与对策综合研究”(批准号:72140005)。

摘　　要：城市是实现国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的关键责任主体,制定城市碳中和政策制定需要相关研究提供支撑。现有城市碳中和路径研究多存在单一行业视角、定性分析、面向中短期碳达峰开展或对于单一路径探讨等局限。研究提出城市碳中和路径研究的“经济社会综合性、长时间尺度阶段性、实现路径多样化、城市战略个性化”四大特点,构建了一套面向碳中和的城市低碳发展路径研究流程和定量研究方法,并结合成都市开展了实证研究。结果表明,中长期内成都市难以仅靠需求控制、能效提升、能源结构低碳化某个单一支柱实现2060年前碳中和的目标,需要多个支柱共同作用,其中能源结构低碳化转型至关重要;部分剩余排放需要通过碳汇、BECCS等负碳技术或碳市场机制进行抵消。Cities play a significant role in accomplishing national carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.Research on urban carbon neutrality provides fanatical support for cities′carbon neutrality policy formulation.Most existing studies have limitations such as single industry perspective,qualitative analysis,development for short-and medium-term carbon peak,or just exploring a single pathway.Based on the characteristics of economic and social comprehensiveness,long-term span and by stages,diversified pathways and personalized city strategies′,this paper summarizes the key points of urban carbon neutrality research and constructs a quantitative research method.On this basis,an empirical study was conducted in Chengdu.The results of the study show that:Relying solely on a single pillar of demand control,energy efficiency improvement and decarbonization of energy structure,it is difficult for Chengdu to achieve its climate targets,and there remains some emissions needed to be offset by carbon sinks,BECCS and other negative carbon technologies or carbon market mechanisms.This paper provides an operational and quantitative research process,research methodology,and a replicable research model for conducting future research on long-term low-carbon development strategies and pathways in other cities.

关 键 词：碳中和路径 LEAP模型 情景分析 成都市 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]