货币政策结构化研究——基于货币政策调控模式和财政政策传导效果的视角  

Research on Structured Monetary Policy--From the Perspective of Monetary Policy Regulation Mode and Fiscal Policy Transmission Effect

作　　者：李苍祺 李恒华[1] 吴心弘 LI Cang-qi;LI Heng-hua;WU Xin-hong(China National Clearing Center,The People's Bank of China 100048)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行清算总中心,100048

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2023年第7期84-102,共19页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：本文基于货币政策调控模式和财政政策传导效果的视角,对货币政策结构化产生的影响进行研究。通过文献梳理提出假设,基于传统IS-LM模型和SV-TVP-VAR模型分别进行理论和实证分析,得出了货币政策结构化产生的影响:一是优化了货币政策调控模式,强化了产出层面调控的逆周期性和稳健性,弱化了通胀层面的调控但提升了调控的稳健性;二是对产出层面逆周期调控的强化,同时体现在数量型和价格型工具上,对价格型工具的强化效果更好,对产出层面稳健性的提升主要体现在价格型工具上,对通胀层面调控效果的弱化主要体现在数量型工具上;三是优化了财政政策的传导效果,提升了财政政策的产出拉动效应,降低了财政政策对通胀的拉动作用。本文的政策含义是,持续完善结构性货币政策工具创新,重视结构性货币政策工具的数量属性和价格属性,持续完善货币政策结构框架在宏观调控中的作用。Based on the perspective of monetary policy regulation mode and fiscal policy transmission effect,this paper studies the impact of structured monetary policy.This paper proposes hypotheses through literature review,makes theoretical and empirical analysis based on the traditional IS-LM model and SV-TVP-VAR model respectively,and finally concludes the impact of structured monetary policy.First,structured monetary policy optimizes the regulation mode of monetary policy,strengthens the counter-cyclical and robust regulation at the output level,weakens the regulation at the inflation level but enhances the robustness of regulation.Second,structured monetary policy strengthens the counter-cyclical regulation at the output level through quantitative and price tools,and the strengthening effect at the price tools is better.The improvement of the robustness at the output level is mainly reflected in the price tools,while the weakening of the regulation effect at the inflation level is mainly reflected in the quantity tools.Third,structured monetary policy optimizes the transmission effect of fiscal policy,improves the output pulling effect of fiscal policy,and reduces the pulling effect of fiscal policy on inflation.The policy implication of this paper is to continuously improve the innovation of structural monetary policy tools,attach importance to the quantitative and price attributes of structural monetary policy tools,and continue to improve the role of the structural framework of monetary policy in macro-control.

关 键 词：货币政策结构化 货币政策调控 财政政策 IS-LM模型 SV-TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学] F820