流域变化环境下水文非平稳异方差序列随机建模研究进展  

Stochastic modeling research progress of hydrological non-stationary heteroscedasticity series in the changing environment of watershed

作　　者：宋松柏[1] SONG Songbai(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第4期1-6,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079110)。

摘　　要：气候变化和高强度人类活动的显著影响使流域水文序列出现异方差性,破坏了Box-Jekins法ARMA模型建立的前提条件。基于国内外相关研究进展和存在的主要科学问题,提出了目前几个主要研究内容和研究途径。金融学、经济学和信号处理等领域的观测序列与流域变化环境下水文非平稳序列异方差性波动特性相似,而且这些领域中已取得了许多成功的案例。应用金融学、经济学和信号处理等领域的异方差性原理和方法,结合流域水文特性,开展变化环境下水文非平稳异方差序列随机建模是可行的,与分布式水文模型相比,该方法是一种实用的建模途径。文中提出的一些思路可为变化环境下精确描述流域水文要素值的变化规律、涉水工程的规划设计与科学管理以及干旱风险调控提供依据。The heteroscedasticity of watershed hydrological series caused by climate change and high intensity human activities has destroyed the precondition of Box-Jekins ARMA model.In view of this,the main research contents and approaches were proposed based on the domestic and foreign research progress and current major scientific problems.The observed series of finance,economics and signal processing are similar to the heteroscedasticity fluctuation characteristics of hydrological non-stationary series in the changing environment of watershed,and many successful cases have been obtained in these areas.So,it may be feasible to apply the heteroskedasticity principles and methods of these fields to the stochastic modeling of hydrological non-stationary series.Also,it is a practical modeling approach compared with the distributed hydrological models.Some ideas proposed in this paper are expected to shed some light on the accurate description of the changing law of hydrological elements in the changing environment,and to provide a basis for the planning,design and scientific management of water-related projects,as well as drought risk regulation and control.

关 键 词：变化环境 水文非平稳序列 异方差性 随机建模 流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]