基于模糊集对分析的新疆水资源脆弱性评价  

Water resources vulnerability assessment of Xinjiang based on fuzzy set pair analysis

作　　者：黄彦号 陈伏龙[1,2] 何朝飞 刘爽 吕廷波 孙怀卫[1,3] HUANG Yanhao;CHEN Fulong;HE Chaofei;LIU Shuang;L Tingbo;SUN Huaiwei(College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,China;Key Laboratory of Cold and Arid Regions Eco-Hydraulic Engineering of Xinjiang Production&Construction Corps,Shihezi 832003,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003 [2]寒旱区生态水利工程兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832003 [3]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第4期107-117,共11页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：南疆重点产业创新发展支撑计划项目(2022DB024);国家自然科学基金项目(52169005)。

摘　　要：为科学评价新疆维吾尔自治区的水资源脆弱性状况,基于自然、人为和承载力3个子系统构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,通过模糊集对分析模型从时空维度对新疆15个地区(州、市)的水资源脆弱性进行评价,并利用五元引力减法集对势识别其目标层发展趋势。结果表明:空间分布上,水资源脆弱性呈现出东疆较强、南疆次之、北疆较弱的规律;时间趋势上,19.03%的地区脆弱性等级呈上升趋势,18.88%的地区较为稳定,62.09%的地区呈下降趋势,总体上脆弱性状况有所改善,但需对水资源脆弱性状况发展态势恒为偏反势的乌鲁木齐市、哈密市和昌吉回族自治州以及出现反势态势的喀什地区给予密切关注和调控。研究结果可为新疆水资源的高效利用和优化管理提供理论依据。To evaluate the water resources vulnerability status of all prefectures in Xinjiang,a water resources vulnerability evaluation index system is constructed based on three subsystems of nature,human activities and carrying capacity,and the water resources vulnerability of 15 prefectures in Xinjiang is evaluated from the temporal and spatial dimensions by fuzzy set pair analysis model.Meanwhile,the target layer development trend is identified by the five-element gravitational subtraction set pair potential.The results show that in terms of spatial distribution,eastern Xinjiang has the strongest water resources vulnerability,followed by southern Xinjiang,and the northern Xinjiang is the weakest.In terms of the temporal trend,19.03%of the regions show an upward trend of vulnerability level,18.88%of the regions are relatively stable,62.09%of the regions show a downward trend,but the overall vulnerability situation has improved.However,it is necessary to pay close attention to Urumqi City,Hami City and Changji Prefecture,where the development trend of water resources vulnerability is always on the partially opposite side,and Kashgar region where the opposite trend has appeared.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the efficient utilization and optimal management of water resources in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：水资源脆弱性评价 模糊集对分析 熵权法 五元引力减法集对势 新疆 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]