日本强化军事能力面临的军工产业转型困境与前景  

Dilemmas and Prospects of Japan’s Military-Industrial Transition in the Face of Strengthened Military Capabilities

作　　者：束必铨[1] SHU Biquan

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院国际问题研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《国际展望》2023年第5期140-159,166,共21页Global Review

摘　　要：近十年来,伴随着安全政策的转向,日本逐步推动其军工产业发展模式从“政府保护型”向“市场竞争型”转变。但从参与军事采购份额、研发投入比重、军备出口竞争力和国际合作四项指标看,日本军工产业发展正面临转型困境。日本此困境受制于其潜在的结构性因素,包括本土采购与对美采购的张力、出口管制与鼓励出口的悖论、消极和平主义与积极和平主义理念的对立,以及企业主营业务与军工生产的失衡等,进而影响其军事能力的拓展。日本“安全三文件”提出“根本性强化军事能力”目标,并对今后军工产业发展的重点进行规划,主张通过强化“官民一体”的协作性制度安排形成技术优势,完善本土产业链,提升与盟友军事装备之间的通用性,进而打造日本式的军工复合体,提升日本军事强国地位。同时,日本还追求针对竞争对手的技术领先优势与力量威慑态势,试图强化军工产业来增强自卫队的持续作战能力。日本政府推进提振军工产业的行动、放宽军事装备出口限制和拓展海外军工市场等行为,都是观察日本未来军工产业发展前景的重要因素。Over the past decade,Japan has been gradually transitioning its military-industrial development model from one characterized by government protection to a more market-competitive approach.However,Japan’s military-industrial sector is currently facing a transition dilemma when assessed through indicators such as the share of military procurement,the proportion of research and development investment,the competitiveness of arms exports,and international collaboration.This dilemma is rooted in structural factors,including the tension between domestic and U.S.procurement,the paradox of export control versus export incentives,the contrast between negative and positive pacifist ideologies,and the imbalance between a company’s core business and its military production.These factors collectively influence Japan’s ability to expand its military capabilities.Japan’s“Three Security Documents”outline a strategic goal of fundamentally enhancing its military capabilities.This includes a focus on strengthening the“government-civilian integration”collaborative framework,advancing military technological applications,and ensuring supply chain resilience.Japan aims to create a technological advantage,enhance its domestic industrial base,improve interoperability with allied military equipment,and ultimately establish a distinctive Japanese-style military-industrial complex.Concurrently,Japan seeks to establish technological superiority and power projection capabilities to deter potential adversaries.The Japanese government has implemented various measures to boost the military-industrial sector,such as relaxing restrictions on military equipment exports and expanding overseas military-industrial markets.These initiatives are critical factors in assessing the future prospects of Japan’s military-industrial transition.

关 键 词：日本安全政策 军工产业政策 军工复合体 武器出口 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]