石油库存、时间价差结构与国际油价的互动关系研究  

The interaction between oil inventories,time spread structure and international oil prices

作　　者：李广俊 吴秋南 郑兴扬 LI Guangjun;WU Qiunan;ZHENG Xingyang(PetroChina International Co., Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石油国际事业有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第5期63-67,共5页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：石油库存是供需基本面的作用结果,时间价差结构则反映近期现实与远期预期的差异,石油库存与时间价差结构呈反向变化。时间价差结构可以用期货市场的近月合约与远月合约的差值来量化。时间价差结构转换往往是油价的拐点。“库存升,价格涨”和“库存降,价格跌”是偶发现象,一旦出现,既是警惕油价趋势性转换的信号,也是逆周期减少库存和增加库存的机会窗口。经合组织商业石油库存与油价呈负相关关系。当前经合组织商业石油库存进入上升期,时间价差结构一度逆转为正向,建议做好开展正向结构下的库存运作的准备,提前布局岸罐、浮舱等物流资源,并择机采购深度贴水现货资源入库。从中长期看,经合组织商业石油库存上涨给油价上行带来压力。Oil inventories are the result of supply and demand difference,while the time spread structure reflects the difference between near-term reality and forward expectations,and oil inventories changing inversely with the time spread structure.The time spread structure can be quantified in terms of the difference between near-month and far-month contracts in the futures market.The time spread structure shift is often an inflection point for oil prices.“Inventories up,prices up” and “inventories down,prices down” are episodic phenomena that,when they occur,are both a signal to be alert to a trend shift in oil prices,and a window of opportunity to reduce and increase inventories countercyclically.Currently,OECD commercial oil inventories,in an upward,are negatively correlated with oil prices with the time spread structure once reversed to positive.It is recommended to be prepared to carry out inventory operations under positive structure,lay out such logistics resources as shore tanks and floating tanks in advance,purchase deeply discounted spot resources into storage at an opportune time.In the medium to long term,rising OECD commercial oil inventories put pressure on the upside of oil prices.

关 键 词：石油库存 原油期货价格 时间价差结构 国际油价 仓储套利 

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