海外油气勘探项目估值方法与参数选取研究  

Study on valuation methods and parameters selection of overseas oil and gas exploration projects

作　　者：王青[1] 邹倩[1] 张宁宁[1] WANG Qing;ZOU Qian;ZHANG Ningning(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第5期68-76,共9页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：国家科技重大专项《全球油气资源评价与选区选带研究》(2016ZX05029)。

摘　　要：对于不同勘探开发阶段的海外油气区块,应采用不同的估值方法,估值结果可信度也不同。在海外勘探区块估值和获取实践中,应根据区块的勘探程度、投标参数需求等选择估值方法。探讨了现金流量折现法、预期货币价值法、储量/资源量交易类比法、最小经济规模储量法的使用范围和优缺点。由于勘探区块估值方法的局限性,是否获取区块的决策还要综合考虑公司勘探业务发展战略、区块合同条款、勘探期投入和联合投标等因素。对海外油气勘探区块资源潜力、油气长期价格、基准折现率、项目投产日期估算、勘探开发投资和操作费等估值参数的选取进行分析,提出选取意见。在2012—2021年,应用该套经济评价方法评价了113个海外油气勘探区块,并成功获取了7个勘探区块,取得了良好的应用效果。For overseas oil and gas blocks at different stages of exploration and development,different valuation methods should be used and their results credibility varies.In the practice of valuation and bidding of overseas exploration blocks,the valuation method should be selected according to the degree of exploration of the block,the demand for bidding parameters,etc.The paper discusses the scope of use as well as advantages disadvantages of discounted cash flow method,EMV,reserve/resource unit price,and minimum economic reserve size.Due to the limitations of the exploration block valuation method,the decision on whether to acquire a block is also based on a combination of such factors as the company's exploration business development strategy,block contract terms,exploration period investment,and joint bids.In addition,it analyzes the selection of valuation parameters such as resource potential of overseas oil and gas exploration blocks,long-term oil and gas price,benchmark discount rate,project commissioning date estimation,exploration and development investment and operating fee,etc.,provides opinions on the selection.The economic evaluation method was applied to evaluate 113 overseas oil and gas exploration blocks,successfully acquiring 7 exploration blocks and achieving good application results during 2012-2021.

关 键 词：海外油气勘探项目 评价方法 估值参数 现金流量折现法 预期货币价值(EMV)估值法 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F125