成品油市场定价博弈的理论分析和实证检验  

Theoretical analysis and empirical test of the pricing game in refined oil market

作　　者：邢治河[1] 张蕾[1] 丁少恒[1] 徐慧玲 XING Zhihe;ZHANG Lei;DING Shaoheng;XU Huiling(PetroChina Planning & Engineering Institute;Center for China Fiscal Development)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院 [2]中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第5期77-84,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：定价博弈模型主要通过定价营销及与对手区分的竞争优势来实现市场份额的转换。当前,中国的成品油市场具有横向竞争的寡头特点。基于中国成品油市场竞争模式与产品同质化的事实,构建包含不确定成本信息环境下的厂商定价模型,利用A和B两家企业的调研数据实证检验理论机制的正确性。结合经典的古诺模型与豪特林模型,引入成本信息的不确定性,研究发现:均衡状态下厂商的最优定价与自身边际成本、其他厂商的成本分布信息以及消费者的距离敏感系数有关。实证结果显示,最小二乘法回归模型和联立方程模型的回归系数与理论模型结果基本一致,从侧面验证了理论定价机制的正确性,引入拓展信息的联立方程模型在价格预测方面的准确性更高。对于不同级别的企业决策来说,博弈研究的方法都可以进行针对性的模拟和预测。可以进一步将模型方法工程化,通过工具软件来实现对博弈模型的应用。The pricing game model focuses on market share switching through pricing marketing and competitive advantages differentiated from rivals.Currently,China's refined oil market is characterized by an oligopoly of horizontal competition.In view of the fact of oligopoly and product homogeneity in China's refined oil market,this paper gradually builds the firm pricing model under the environment of uncertain cost information,tests the correctness and predictive power of the theoretical mechanism by using the real data of Enterprise A and Enterprise B.Combining the classical Cournot model and Hautlin model,this paper introduces the uncertainty of cost information,and finds that the firm's optimal pricing in equilibrium is related to its own marginal cost,the cost distribution information of other firms,and the distance sensitivity coefficient of consumers.The empirical results show that the regression coefficients of the least square regression model and the simultaneous equation model are basically consistent with the results of the theoretical model,which proves the correctness of the theoretical pricing mechanism from the side,and the simultaneous equation model with expanded information has higher accuracy in price prediction.For different levels of company's decision-making,the game research method can carry out targeted simulation and prediction.The model method can be further developed to realize the application of game model through tool software.

关 键 词：定价机制 产品竞争 博弈模型 成品油市场 市场营销 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1F224.32