基于层次分析法的海外油气项目投资环境风险定量评价  

Quantitative evaluation of investment environment risks in overseas oil and gas projects based on analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：孙沛霖 李祖欣 黄飞 SUN Peilin;LI Zuxin;HUANG Fei(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院项目评价研究所

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第5期91-100,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：百年未有之大变局的加速演变叠加全球疫情的影响,给中国海外油气项目带来诸多风险与挑战。中国油气企业需要进一步完善资源国投资环境的风险评估体系,在定性分析的基础上量化风险点,更加全面具体地掌握资源国的投资环境情况,为投资决策提供有效依据。通过对中国的国际油气合作项目进行调研,构建了海外油气项目风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法对资源环境、法治环境、外交环境、政治环境、经济环境和社会环境这6项一级指标和27项二级指标进行权重计算,选取中亚-俄罗斯、中东、非洲、美洲、亚太这5大油气合作区的重点资源国作为样本进行定量评价,找出资源国投资环境中重要风险点,为海外油气项目投资提供决策依据。The accelerated evolution of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century,coupled with the impact of the global pandemic,has brought many risks and challenges to China's overseas oil and gas projects.Chinese oil and gas companies need to further improve the risk assessment system of the investment environment in resource countries,quantify risk points on the basis of qualitative analysis,and grasp the investment environment of resource countries in a more comprehensive and specific way,so as to provide an effective basis for investment decisions.This paper constructs a risk evaluation index system for overseas oil and gas projects by conducting research on China's international oil and gas cooperation projects,and applies the AHP method to calculate the weights of such 6 primary indicators as resource environment,rule of law environment,diplomatic environment,political environment,economic environment,and social environment,and then calculates 27 secondary indicators,selects the key resource countries of Central Asia-Russia,the Middle East,Africa,the Americas,and Asia Pacific in five major oil and gas cooperation zones as sample countries for quantitative evaluation,identifies important risk points in the investment environment of resource countries to provide a basis for decision making in overseas oil and gas project investment.

关 键 词：海外油气项目 投资环境 层次分析法 定量评价 风险 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]