目标价格补贴改革对农户大豆生产的影响——基于双重差分法的实证分析  

Effect of Target Price Subsidy Reform on Soybean Production:An Empirical Analysis Based on Difference-in-differences Method

作　　者：陆钰凤 贾杰斐 杨青[2] LU Yufeng;JIA Jiefei;YANG Qing

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第8期66-81,共16页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国宅基地制度改革及其保障路径研究”(编号:21ZDA060);国家社会科学基金重点项目“深化农村集体产权制度改革研究”(编号:20AZD046);上海财经大学创新团队项目“稳步推进农村集体产权制度改革角度下农民获得更多土地财产权益的体制及机制创新研究”(编号:2018110693);上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目“农业补贴政策改革研究:绩效评价及其优化”(编号:CXJJ-2019-433);国家自然科学基金青年项目“WTO框架下农业补贴改革对粮食生产的影响及应对研究”(编号:72103116);中国博士后基金委面上项目“农业补贴改革对粮食适度规模经营影响的研究——基于WTO规则的视角”(编号:2020M681252)。

摘　　要：为继续深入推进大豆市场定价和价补分离改革,实现大豆补贴与玉米补贴机制的衔接以及种植结构的调整,2017年我国取消大豆目标价格补贴的同时建立了大豆生产者补贴。本文基于2014—2017年全国农村固定观察点农户数据以及2014—2019年省级面板数据,并结合倾向得分匹配法和双重差分法,从微观和宏观层面分析了目标价格补贴改革对大豆生产的影响,结果显示:第一,改革提高了补贴标准,进而扩大了大豆的播种面积;第二,改革也提升了大豆在粮食播种面积中的占比和相对玉米播种面积的比例;第三,改革对大豆生产的促进效应在次年减弱,原因在于大豆补贴标准的提高在次年没能达到农户预期水平且补贴标准的设置未能充分考虑成本上涨因素;第四,改革效应在第三年实现回升,这得益于大豆玉米补贴机制的衔接使得政策目标更加可控。因此,需要根据生产成本和外部规则等变化适时调整补贴标准,注重引导农户预期,增强政策的精准性和可控性。本文的研究结果为今后稻谷和小麦等其他农作物的价格补贴改革提供了重要的参考。In order to continue deepening the reform of market pricing and price-subsidy separation of soybean,realize the mechanism convergence of soybean subsidy and corn subsidy,and adjust the planting structure,the Chinese government abolished target price subsidy and established producer subsidy of soybean in 2017.Based on data of Fixed Observation Points of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in China from 2014 to 2017 and the provincial panel data from 2014 to 2019,this paper uses propensity score matching and difference-in-differences method to analyze the impact of target price subsidy reform on soybean production in both the micro and macro levels.The results show that:First,the reform increases the subsidy standard,and then increases the sown area of soybean.Second,the reform improves both the proportion of sown area of soybean to grain and to corn.Third,the effect of reform decreases in the second year because the improvement of soybean subsidy standard failed to reach the expected level of farmers in the next year,and the setting of subsidy standard failed to fully consider the factors of rising cost.Fourth,the reform effect rebounds in the third year,which is due to the convergence of soybean and corn subsidy mechanism,which makes the policy objectives more controllable.Therefore,it is necessary to adjust the subsidy standard in time according to changes in production costs and external rules,so as to guide farmers'expectations and enhance the accuracy and controllability of the policy.The results of this paper provide important references for the price subsidy reform of rice,wheat and other crops in the future.

关 键 词：目标价格补贴改革 生产者补贴 大豆生产 

分 类 号：F812.8[经济管理—财政学] F326.12