CAFTA情景下中国与东盟农产品贸易效应研究  

Research on the Effects of Agricultural Trade between China and ASEAN in the CAFTA Scenario

作　　者：黄勇[1] 牛惠亭 李谷成[1] HUANG Yong;NIU Huiting;LI Gucheng

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第8期113-129,共17页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下我国农业全要素生产率提升战略研究”(编号:18ZDA072)。

摘　　要：中国—东盟自贸区是中国最早建立、进展最快、效果最实的自贸区,其建立与发展对推动中国农业对外开放格局、拓展农产品多元化进口渠道及扩大优势农产品出口具有重要的借鉴意义。本文采用反事实的合成控制法评估CAFTA战略对东盟整体和各成员国的农产品贸易效应,并通过生存分析进一步评估CAFTA战略对中国农产品出口贸易效应的持续性。研究发现,合成控制法较好地复制了CAFTA战略实施之前中国与东盟双边农产品贸易情况;CAFTA的建立对中国与东盟农产品贸易产生了贸易促进效应;但CAFTA战略对不同成员国双边农产品贸易效应不仅大小不同,甚至方向相反。进一步的生存分析发现,CAFTA战略实施延长了中国对东盟农产品贸易效应的持续期。The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is China's earliest established,fastest-growing,and most effective free trade area.Its establishment and development have important reference significance for promoting China's agricultural opening up pattern,expanding diversified import channels for agricultural products,and expanding export of advantageous agricultural products.This article first uses synthetic control method to evaluate the CAFTA strategy's agricultural trade effects on ASEAN as a whole and each member country,and then further evaluates the sustainability of the CAFTA strategy on China's agricultural product export trade effects through survival analysis.The results indicate that the synthetic control method copied the situation of bilateral agricultural trade between China and ASEAN before the implementation of the CAFTA strategy;the establishment of CAFTA had a trade promotion effect on the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN;however,the CAFTA strategy had an effect on the bilateral agricultural trade of different member countries.Not only are they different in size,but even in the opposite direction.Further survival analysis finds that the implementation of the CAFTA strategy has prolonged the duration of China's agricultural trade effects with ASEAN.

关 键 词：中国—东盟自贸区 农产品贸易效应 合成控制法 贸易持续期 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F753.3[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7