对外贸易对中国新旧动能转换的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Foreign Trade on China's the Replacement of the Old Drivers of Growth

作　　者：马海良[1] 张格琳 MA Hai-liang;ZHANG Ge-lin(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211000)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211000

出　　处：《软科学》2023年第8期31-37,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目(20YJA790052);江苏省社会科学基金项目(19EYB004);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX21_0430)。

摘　　要：在测算中国30个省市新旧动能转换水平的基础上,利用中介效应模型探究对外贸易如何通过技术创新效应、消费需求效应、人力资本效应以及环境负担效应对新旧动能转换产生影响。结果显示:(1)中国新旧动能转换水平逐年上升,且呈现“东高西低”的分布特征;(2)对外贸易对中国新旧动能转换影响显著,消费需求效应、技术创新效应、人力资本效应发挥部分中介作用,且这种影响程度存在显著的区域差异;(3)不同贸易方式对中国新旧动能转换的影响程度不同,一般贸易的促进作用大于加工贸易,高技术贸易的促进作用大于非高技术贸易。据此,提出加大科技创新力度、提升贸易竞争力、建立针对性的区域产业联动机制等建议。Based on the calculation of the replacement of the old drivers of growth in 30 provinces and cities in China,the mediation effect model is used to explore how foreign trade can affect the replacement of the old drivers of growth through the effects of technological innovation,consumer demand,talent capital and environmental burden.Results show that,first,the replacement of the old drivers of growth is increasing year by year,and the distribution characteristics of"east high,west low"are present.Second,foreign trade has a significant impact on replacement of the old drivers of growth,and the consumer demand effect,scientific and technological innovation effect,and human capital effect all play a part of the intermediary role,and there are significant regional differences in the degree of this influence.Third,the impact of different trade modes on replacement of the old drivers of growth is heterogeneous,and the promotion effect of general trade is greater than that of processing trade.The promotion effect of high-tech trade is greater than that of non-high-tech trade.Accordingly,it is proposed to increase scientific and technological innovation to enhance trade competitiveness and establish a targeted regional industrial linkagemechanism.

关 键 词：对外贸易 新旧动能转换 高质量发展 中介效应 熵权法 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F752