不同政策组合情景下工业企业生产用水决策仿真  

Simulation of Industrial Enterprises'Decision-making on Water for Production Under Different Policy Mix Scenarios

作　　者：孙冬营[1,2] 谷晓雅 王慧敏[2] SUN Dong-ying;GU Xiao-ya;WANG Hui-min(School of Management,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013;Institute of Management Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,南京211100

出　　处：《软科学》2023年第8期75-85,共11页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BGL191、20BGL113);国家自然科学基金项目(71704068);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(21YJCZH139);江苏省社会科学基金项目(21GLB007)。

摘　　要：基于情景分析法构建了工业企业生产用水决策仿真模型,以镇江市124家化工企业为例,考察水价、补贴力度、惩罚力度三种政策因素对企业生产用水的控制效果;并从企业规模和用水状态两个维度,探究各政策因素对企业生产策略选择的影响机制。结果表明:水价上涨、补贴和惩罚力度的加大都能有效控制企业的用水需求。对于计划用水在平均用水与最大用水之间的企业而言,规模越大,对补贴力度越敏感;对于计划用水大于最大用水的企业而言,规模越小,对惩罚力度越敏感,而对水价和补贴力度越不敏感。计划用水略高于最大用水限制的企业更愿意选择通过减产实现节水。最后,提出了促进工业企业节水的政策建议。Based on the scenario analysis method,this paper constructs a simulation model of industrial enterprise production water decision.And then,it investigates the control effects of three policy factors including water price,subsidy intensity,and punishment intensity on enterprise water use,by taking 124 chemical enterprises in Zhenjiang City as an example.It explores the influence mechanism of each policy factor on the choice of enterprise production strategy from the two dimensions of enterprise scale and water use status.Results show that the increase in water price,subsidies,and penalties can effectively control the water demand of enterprises.For enterprises whose planned water consumption is between the average and the maximum water consumption,the larger the scale,the more sensitive the subsidy.For the enterprises whose planned water consumption is greater than the maximum water consumption,the smaller the scale,the more sensitive to penalties,and the less sensitive to water pricing and subsidies.Enterprises that plan to use slightly above the maximum water limit are more likely to choose to save water by reducing production.Furthermore,it proposes policy recommendations to promote water conservation in industrial enterprises.

关 键 词：生产用水控制 策略选择 水价 罚款 补贴 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F426[经济管理—产业经济]