新型基础设施REITs投资模式的演化博弈与模拟仿真  

Evolutionary Game and Simulation of New Infrastructure REITs InvestmentModel

作　　者：张莉莎 刘穷志[2] ZHANG Li-sha;LIU Qiong-zhi(School of Political Science and Public Administration,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan 430072;Economics and Management School,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学政治与公共管理学院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《软科学》2023年第8期134-144,共11页Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20YJA790045)。

摘　　要：通过构建地方政府与投资者的演化博弈模型,考察是否存在稳定均衡的投资模式策略,并采用系统动力学模型进行模拟仿真,分析达到稳定均衡应具备的条件。结果表明,存在三种稳定均衡和两种不稳定均衡,不稳定均衡呈现规律波动的特征。在稳定均衡中,地方政府应提高监管效率,减少监管费用、政策制定实施成本和交易成本,加大税收优惠力度,以实现“采用REITs投资模式”策略的稳定均衡条件。对于不稳定均衡,需要更高级别的政府部门参与,加强法律制度顶层设计,使其演化为稳定均衡。By constructing the evolutionary game model between local governments and investors,it investigates whether there is a stable equilibrium of investment mode strategy,and uses the system dynamics model for simulation to analyze the conditions for achieving a stable equilibrium.The results show that there are three kinds of stable equilibrium and two kinds of unstable equilibrium,and the unstable equilibrium presents the characteristics of regular fluctuation.In the stable equilibrium,local governments should improve the efficiency of regulation,reduce regulatory costs,policy formulation and implementation costs and transaction costs,increase tax incentives,to realize the stable equilibrium conditions for the strategy of"adopting REITs investment mode".For unstable equilibrium,higher levels of government departments should be involved to strengthen the top-level design of the legal system so that the unstable equilibrium can evolve into a stable equilibrium.

关 键 词：新型基础设施 REITS 演化博弈 系统动力学 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学] F283[政治法律—中外政治制度] F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]