基于相对风险管控能力的化工企业风险分级方法  

Risk classification method for chemical enterprises based on relative risk management and control capability

作　　者：田震[1] 沈艳洋 赖恩 TIAN Zhen;SHEN Yanyang;LAI En(Institute of Safety Science Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所,广州510641

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第8期2598-2606,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：综合考虑企业的固有风险与风险管控能力,建立一种化工企业安全生产风险分级的新方法。通过潜在生命损失值评估企业固有风险,确定风险分级判据;引入过程量与动态量构建化工企业风险管控能力评估指标体系,并基于云模型评估企业风险管控能力;提出相对风险管控能力系数概念,描述风险管控能力与固有风险相互作用下的企业安全生产风险等级。案例应用结果表明:根据相对风险管控能力系数的大小,可识别出固有风险等级低而安全生产风险等级高的企业,基于相对风险管控能力的风险分级方法具有可行性、有效性和实用性,对企业风险管控工作具有科学指导价值。To reasonably evaluate the safety production risk level of chemical enterprises and prevent accidents,a new method of production safety risk for chemical enterprises is established by considering both inherent risks and risk management and control capability.Firstly,this paper selects the potential loss of life value(PLL)as the index to evaluate the inherent risk of chemical enterprises,and divides the inherent risk into four levels based on social risk tolerance standards in China.Secondly,through the analysis of relevant literature and chemical industry specification documents,this paper develops the evaluation index system of risk management and control capability of chemical enterprises,including 4 first-level indexes,12 second-level indexes and 39 third-level indexes;The best-worst method(BWM)and entropy weight method are used to calculate the subjective weight and objective weight of indexes,the idea of game theory is introduced to determine the combination weight of indexes,and then the evaluation level of risk management and control capability is determined by a cloud model.Finally,this paper proposes the concept of relative risk control coefficient to describe the enterprise safety production risk level under the interaction between risk management and control capability and inherent risk;Based on the relative risk control coefficient,this paper analyzes the risk of chemical enterprises,obtains the enterprise risk matrix under the condition of two factors,and divides the enterprise risk level from high to low into extremely high risk,high risk,medium risk,and low risk.The result of application research shows that enterprises with low inherent risk level and high safety production risk level can be identified according to the relative risk control coefficient,and the weak links of enterprises’risk management and control capability can be judged by the radar chart of risk management and control capability.The risk classification method for relative risk management and control capability is feasible,effec

关 键 词：安全工程 风险管控能力 化工企业 云模型 潜在生命损失 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]