分类分级视角下供水管网地震韧性评估研究  

Research on seismic resilience assessment of water supply network from the perspective of classification and grading

作　　者：甄纪亮 刘晓然 刘朝峰[2] 张略淼 ZHEN Jiliang;LIU Xiaoran;LIU Chaofeng;ZHANG Luemiao(School of Science,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;College of Civil and Transportation,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;School of Civil Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学理学院,北京100044 [2]河北工业大学土木工程学院,天津300401 [3]北京建筑大学土木与交通学院,北京100044

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第8期2630-2636,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908025);教育部人文社科项目(20YJCZH242);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2022202119);北京建筑大学金字塔人才培养工程(JDYC20200326)。

摘　　要：为解决供水管网安全精细化管理问题,提升城市供水管网地震韧性水平,在综合分析影响供水管网安全的主要因素的基础上,引入分类分级理念,结合动态分级法(Dynamic Classification Method,DT)和集对分析-可变模糊模型(Set Pair Analysis-Variable Fuzzy Recognition Model,SPA-VFRM),建立供水管网地震韧性评估分类分级模型,动态优化供水管网地震韧性分类,量化评定管道安全韧性分级,并应用于某县城供水管网安全韧性综合评估。结果表明,提出的新模型可以有效实现供水管网地震韧性的分类与分级,提高供水管道风险识别的精确性,能够为制订科学的供水管网维护和改造策略提供理论支持。To solve the fine management problem of safe operation for water supply networks and improve seismic resilience of urban water supply networks,based on the comprehensive analysis of the main factors affecting the safety of water supply networks,the concept of classification and grading is introduced.Firstly,considering the static and dynamic indexes that affect the safety of water supply networks,the Dynamic Classification Method(DT)is used to classify the seismic resilience of water supply networks.Then,based on the Set Pair Analysis-Variable Fuzzy Recognition Model(SPA-VFRM),which can tackle the uncertainty issue of multiple factors,the resilience membership of water supply networks is determined.Finally,the assessment standard of the seismic resilience grade of the water supply network is proposed,and the seismic resilience can be evaluated by classification and grading.The established classification and grading model corresponding to the seismic resilience assessment of water supply networks is applied to the comprehensive assessment of the safety resilience of the water supply network in a county to verify its applicability.The results show that the optimal classification numbers of 96 pipeline segments are 6,where 6 corresponding key pipeline segments are calculated and screened,namely P69,P4,P33,P29,P31,and P58.In addition,the seismic resilience grades of pipeline segments are concentrated in the class ofⅡ,Ⅲ,andⅣ.Through dynamically optimizing the seismic resilience classification and quantitatively evaluating the safety resilience grading of the water supply network,it is proved that the proposed new model can effectively realize the classification and grading of the seismic resilience and improve the accuracy of the risk identification under considering the influence of subjective and objective factors.The research results can provide theoretical support for formulating scientific and reasonable maintenance and transformation strategies for water supply networks.

关 键 词：安全工程 供水管网 地震韧性 动态分级法 可变模糊识别模型 分类分级 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]