中心城市产业结构对腹地城市人口增长及区域城市体系演化的影响  

The influence of the industrial structure of central cities on surrounding cities and regional urban systems

作　　者：李佳洺[1] 孙东琪[1] 姜炎鹏[2] LI Jiaming;SUN Dongqi;JIANG Yanpeng(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;School of Urban and Regional Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所、中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200062

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第8期1955-1968,共14页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合考察研究(2019QZKK0406);国家自然科学基金项目(42171178)。

摘　　要：从产业异质性的角度,实证分析区域中心城市产业结构对周边城市人口增长的作用过程和机制,并进一步探究了产业结构对于区域城市体系的极化和均衡演化的影响。结果表明:(1)制造业强化了中心城市的溢出效应,促进了周边城市人口的增长,而服务业则弱化了溢出效应,对周边城市的增长具有抑制作用;(2)以制造业为主的区域中心城市由于相对较小的城市规模和较强的溢出效应,更容易形成相对均衡的区域城市体系,而以服务业为主的区域中心城市,更倾向形成相对极化的区域城市体系;(3)产业结构与周边城市人口增长呈现倒“U”型关系,即中心城市制造业或服务业占比过低或过高都不利于周边城市的人口增长。The study of the new economic geography has paid attention to the polarization and balanced development of urban systems.In reality,however,transport accessibility is subject to great uncertainty in explaining the polarization and balance of the urban system.In fact,the polarization or equilibrium of the regional urban system is not only unique in China,but also a general phenomenon in countries with different development outcomes,political systems and degrees of marketization.From the perspective of industrial heterogeneity,this study empirically analyzes the process and mechanism of the industrial structure of regional central cities on the population growth of neighboring cities in China from 1980 to 2020,and examines the influence of industrial structure on the polarization and equilibrium development of the regional urban system.The results show that,firstly,the manufacturing sector strengthens the spillover effect from the core city and promotes the population growth in neighboring cities,while the service sector weakens the spillover effect and hinders the growth in neighboring cities.Secondly,the manufacturing-oriented cities have relatively small city scale,while the service-oriented cities are relatively large.Therefore,the driving effect of manufacturingoriented central cities on the neighboring cities is larger,which tends to produce a relatively balanced regional city system.Correspondently,the spillover effect of service-oriented central cities on the neighboring cities is smaller,which tends to form a relatively polarized regional city system.Finally,as the share of services in the industrial structure of central cities continues to rise,China's urban system may become more polarized rather than balanced.Certainly,the higher the proportion of manufacturing in the central city,the more balanced the regional urban system is.In fact,the empirical results show that the industrial structure and the spillover effect of the core city have an inverted U-shaped relationship,i.e.a high proportion of manufact

关 键 词：产业区域空间效应 产业结构 城市增长 极化与均衡 区域城市体系 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F121.3[社会学—人口学] C924.2