中国城市规模分布的测度、演变及成因  

Measurement,evolution,and causes of urban size distribution in China

作　　者：苏聪文 SU Cong-wen

机构地区：[1]复旦大学人口研究所

出　　处：《城市问题》2023年第6期26-36,共11页Urban Problems

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关课题(20JZD030)——“新时代特大城市管理创新机制研究”;上海市教委科研创新重大项目(E00026)——“新时代中国人口发展战略研究”。

摘　　要：城市规模分布的优化对于推动中国经济社会高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。对中国城市规模分布的测度方法、演变特征和驱动因素相关研究进行综述发现:“位序—规模”模型、首位度指数、马尔科夫转移矩阵等测度方法在整体与局部、静态与动态等研究维度中各有侧重点和优势(劣势),应根据研究需要综合选择适配的工具方法。较多研究认为中国城市规模分布相对欧美国家的城市体系而言偏向扁平,其变化趋势总体表现为2000年以前的扁平化趋势和2000年以来的集中化趋势。由于城市界定不一致、样本选择不一致、数据口径不一致和区划变更较频繁等原因,现有测度研究结论仍有较大分歧。中国城市规模分布的演变受到第一自然因素、第二自然因素和制度因素的共同影响,现有影响因素研究关于因果分析、内生性和异质性的讨论相对不足。未来应从新数据、新方法、新视角和新空间四个方面推动中国城市规模分布相关研究的持续深化。The optimization of urban size distribution is of great practical significance for promoting China's high-quality development.A review of the measurement methods,evolution characteristics and driving factors of urban size distribution in China shows that measurement methods such as rank-size model,first degree index,and Markov transfer matrix have their own emphasis,advantages and disadvantages in the dimensions of whole and part,statics and dynamics,and should be focused according to the research needs.Many studies believe that the urban size distribution in China is more even compared with that of European and American countries,and its evolutionary trend is generally manifested as the flattening trend before 2000 and the concentration trend since 2000.Due to inconsistent city definition,inconsistent sample selection,inconsistent data caliber and frequent zoning changes,the conclusions of the existing measurement studies are still quite divergent.The evolution of China's city size distribution is jointly influenced by the first nature,the second nature,and institutional factors.Current influencing factor studies have relatively little discussion of causal analysis,endogeneity,and heterogeneity.Future research on the city size distribution in China can seek breakthroughs from four aspects:new data,new methods,new perspectives and new spaces.

关 键 词：城市规模分布 测度 演变 成因 中国 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]