气候变化感知对农户生计策略的影响——基于云南省农村居民调查数据  

Impact of climate change perception on rural households'livelihood strategies:Based on the survey data of residents in Yunnan Province

作　　者：段存儒 武照亮 曾贤刚[1] DUAN Cunru;WU Zhaoliang;ZENG Xiangang(School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 10872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2023年第7期251-264,共14页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0213702);中国人民大学2021年度“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”(21XNL006)。

摘　　要：为理清气候变化感知影响农户生计的基本路径和内在逻辑,本研究基于云南省昭通市大山包镇农户调查数据,应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型分析气候变化感知对其生计策略的影响。结果表明:(1)气候变化感知对农业生计策略具有显著负面影响,但对非农业策略呈现显著正向影响;(2)气候变化感知同时通过适应性行为这一中介变量间接影响生计策略,进一步推动农业生计策略向非农化方向发展;(3)气候变化感知对生计策略的影响路径表现出明显的农户个人因素差异和农业生产环境差异,风险喜好型和信息获取能力较强的农户群体更倾向于调整和转变生计策略,存在农业补贴和农业基础设施较完备时农户倾向于坚持农业生计策略。本研究能够为政府制定针对性更强的气候变化政策、提升农户可持续生计能力提供一定参考。Based on the survey data of 364 residents in Dashanbao,Zhaotong,Yunnan Province,the impact of climate change perception on farmers'livelihood strategies is analyzed using partial least square structural equation model to clarify the path and internal logic of climate change perception affecting farmers'livelihoods.The results show that:(1)Climate change perception has a significant negative impact on agricultural livelihood strategies and a significant positive impact on non-agricultural strategies.(2)Climate change perception influences livelihood strategies through adaptive behavior,which makes farmers'livelihoods turn to non-agricultural strategies.(3)Individual factors of farmers and agricultural production environment play significant moderating roles in the relationship between climate change perception and livelihood strategies.Groups with risk-loving and high information acquisition ability are more inclined to adjust livelihood strategies.Farmers tend to adhere to agricultural livelihood strategies when agricultural subsidies and agricultural infrastructure are relatively complete.This study can provide some reference for the government to formulate more targeted climate change policies and improve the sustainable livelihood ability of rural residents.

关 键 词：农户 气候变化感知 适应性行为 生计策略 结构方程模型 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]