大型公立医院流感监测预警模型构建与效果分析  

Construction and Effect Analysis of Influenza Surveillance and Early Warning Model in Large Public Hospitals

作　　者：陈康 胡何晶 刘锋 胡小素[1] 张文丽[1] CHEN Kang;HU He-jing;LIU Feng;HU Xiao-su;ZHANG Wen-li(Peking University Third Hospital)

机构地区：[1]北京大学第三医院

出　　处：《医院管理论坛》2023年第8期3-8,共6页Hospital Management Forum

基　　金：2021年度北京市重大疫情防治重点专科项目。

摘　　要：目的探讨大型公立医院流感监测预警体系及实施效果。方法对医院2011-2018年流感样病例监测数据和流感病原学监测数据进行汇总分析,构建医院流感监测预警基线模型,分析医院2018-2023年流感监测情况。结果医院流感监测预警基线值为2.54%,灵敏度为92.73%,特异度为67.74%,一致率为71.51%,Kappa值为0.35(p<0.001)。结论实现医院流感疫情的早期预警,形成“构建流感预警与防控三级组织管理构架,科学进行流感监测预警信息分析与发布,医院多部门联动合作切实提高流感医疗救治能力”的工作模式,切实提高了医院流感防控能力。Objective To explore the influenza surveillance and early warning system in large public hospitals and its implementation effect.Methods Collected and analyzed the surveillance data of influenza-like cases and influenza etiology in hospitals from 2011 to 2018.Constructed the baseline model of influenza surveillance and early warning in hospitals,and analyzed the surveillance situation of influenza in hospitals from 2018 to 2023.Results The baseline of influenza surveillance and early warning was 2.54%,the sensitivity was 92.73%,the specificity was 67.74%,the concordance rate was 71.51%,and the result of Kappa value was 0.35(p<0.001).Conclusion Early warning of influenza in hospitals has been realized.The work mode of"building a three-level organizational management framework for early warning,prevention and control of influenza,scientific analysis and release of influenza monitoring and early warning information,and multi-department cooperation of the hospital to effectively improve the capacity of medical treatment of influenza"has been formed,which has effectively improved the capacity of influenza prevention and control in the hospital.

关 键 词：公立医院 流感 预警 防控 管理 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]