我国实际抚养比研究--2023-2037年的预测  

Research on the Actual Dependency Ratio in China-Forecast for 2023-2037

作　　者：张苏[1] 朱梓怡 Zhang Su;Zhu Ziyi(Institute of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Statistics,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学统计学院,北京100875

出　　处：《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期421-425,共5页Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJL037).

摘　　要：用理论抚养比来分析我国真实的劳动力负担时会导致很大的偏差。为解决该问题,在实际抚养比计算公式中引入了更合理的年龄段,加入了劳动参与率以及不同年龄段的消费需求,还创新性地引入系统聚类法将全国划分为4个区域,严格按照普查年鉴中每4岁一个年龄段统计人口的特点,对GM(1,1)模型各期预测值的重要性参数进行了合理调整,最终得到了2023—2037年4个区域的人口及少儿、老年抚养比预测值。Using theoretical dependency ratios to analyze the real labor burden in China leads to significant deviations.To solve this problem,the calculation formula of the actual dependency ratio was introduced,incorporating a more reasonable age range,labor participation rate and consumption demand of different age groups.The hierarchical clustering method was innovatively introduced to divide the country into four major regions and key parameters of the GM(1,1)model’s predicted values for each period were adjusted strictly according to the characteristics of population statistics for every four years in the census yearbook.Finally,the predicted population and child as well as elderly dependency ratios for the four regions from 2023 to 2037 were obtained.

关 键 词：理论抚养比 实际抚养比 系统聚类 抚养比预测 

分 类 号：D616[政治法律—政治学]