基础研究的状态评估与未来预测--基于“双一流”建设大学的基础研究创新绩效与发展潜力的动态监测  

State evaluation and future prediction of basic research--Dynamic monitoring of basic research innovation performance and development potential based on“double first class”Construction University

作　　者：吴杨 陈希 孙井永[2] 单捷飞 李冰 WU Yang;CHEN Xi;SUN Jing-yong;SHAN Jie-fei;LI Bing(School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Laboratory and Facilities Management Office,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学人文与社会科学学院,北京100081 [2]北京航空航天大学资产与实验室管理处,北京100191

出　　处：《科学管理研究》2023年第4期16-22,共7页Scientific Management Research

基　　金：科技部创新型国家建设监测和智库建设研究项目(编号:NTS202212);北京市“十四五”教育科学规划课题优先关注项目(编号:AAEA21001)。

摘　　要：监测我国高校基础研究绩效的动态变化以及评估发展潜力是我国基础研究创新体系构建亟待解决的问题。考虑各一流大学创新能力及进步难易程度等问题,构建三个指标:基础研究创新绩效值、参考指数、当前指数,通过二次相对评价法得到前沿面指数和动态绩效值,刻画与评估“十二五”和“十三五”十年期间“双一流”建设大学基础研究创新绩效及未来发展潜力,并考察我国相关政策对其影响。最后对我国一流大学的基础研究进行展望。研究结果显示:(1)清华大学、北京大学、浙江大学、中国科技大学在“十三五”期间已经达到最优绩效值,我国应努力将其打造成为“人才和创新高地”,重点开展世界前沿研究;(2)北京理工大学、哈尔滨工业大学、北京航天航空大学、西安交通大学、西北工业大学、复旦大学、华中科技大学、上海交通大学等,这些高校自身创新绩效较高,发展速度较快,同时有巨大的发展潜力,如政策引导到位、完善内部激励措施等进行强有力的外部支撑,将是我国基础研究创新的“后备力量”。The urgent problems to be solved in the construction of our country's basic research innovation system are monitoring the dynamic changes in the performance of basic research in universities and evaluating the development poten-tial.Considering the innovation ability and difficulties in progress of the top universities,this article constructs three indica-tors:basic research innovation performance value,reference index,current index.Based on obtaining the frontier index and dynamic performance value through the secondary relative evaluation method,the research describes and evaluates the basic research innovation performance and future development potential of"Double First-Class"universities during the"12th Five-Year Plan"and the"13th Five-Year Plan",and examines the impact of relevant Chinese policies on it.Finally,the basic research of top universities is prospected.The research results show that:First,Tsinghua University,Peking Universi-ty,Zhejiang University,and University of Science and Technology of China have reached their optimal performance values during the"13th Five-Year Plan".China should strive to build them into""scientific highland"and focus on the world's cutting-edge research;Second,Harbin Institute of Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing University of Aero-nautics and Astronautics,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Fudan University,Huazhong U-niversity of Science and Technology,Shanghai Jiaotong University,etc.These universities have high innovation performance and rapid development.At the same time,they have huge potential in development.The government provides strong external support such as policy guidance and improvement of internal incentives,and they will be the"backup force"for basic re-search and innovation in China.

关 键 词：“双一流”建设大学 基础研究 创新绩效 二次相对评价 

分 类 号：G644[文化科学—高等教育学]