基于降水距平百分率的衡水市干旱趋势分析  

Drought Trend in Hengshui City based on Precipitation Anomaly Percentage

作　　者：吴志福 陈晓 WU Zhi-fu;CHEN Xiao(Hebei Hengshui Hydrological Survey and Research Cente,Hengshui 053000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省衡水水文勘测研究中心,河北衡水053000

出　　处：《海河水利》2023年第8期77-80,100,共5页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：掌握区域降水序列对落实水资源管理、工农业生产发展均具有重要意义。利用衡水市1956—2015年降水观测资料,统计分析了降水的年际变化和季节变化特性,用降水距平百分率指标作为干旱等级情况的评价指标体系,分析了不同等级干旱的时空分布特征。分析结果表明,衡水地区夏季降水呈现增长趋势,降水年际及春、秋、冬季均呈现减小变化,降水年际和季节变化明显,但是2001—2020年降水呈现增长的态势,表明未来发生干旱的可能性降低。研究成果为干旱预测预警及防灾减灾工作提供数据支撑服务。Mastering the regional precipitation sequence is of great significance to the implementation of water resources management and the development of industrial and agricultural production.Based on the precipitation observation data of Hengshui City from 1956 to 2015,this paper studied and analyzed the characteristics of interannual and seasonal precipitation changes,taking the precipitation anomaly percentage as the drought grade evaluation index,analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of different grades of drought.The results show that the summer precipitation in Hengshui region shows an increasing trend,and the interannual,spring,autumn and winter precipitation show decreasing changes.The interannual and seasonal changes of precipitation are obvious,but the precipitation from 2001 to 2020 shows an increasing trend,indicating that the possibility of drought in the future will reduce.The research results can provide data for drought prediction and early warning as well as disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：降水 距平百分率 特征分析 干旱 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]